Cooper Webb and Austin Forkner had near identical nights en route to wins in their respective classes. Cooper Webb qualified 4th, won his heat race, and then won the 450 main event wire-to-wire. Austin Forkner qualified 5th, won his heat race, and then won the 250 main event wire-to-wire. While the racing was good, it didn’t hold a candle to this past Sunday. With that in mind, I’m going to diverge from a race recap and instead investigate a few stats.
On the podium, Cooper Webb was pretty pumped to grab a holeshot and win wire-to-wire. It got me thinking, how often does that happen?! This season, we’ve seen 16 different winners lead every single lap. 10 of those 16 have been in the 250 class. That leaves 6 wire-to-wire wins in the 450 class. Of the 6 different 450 wire-to-wire wins, 4 of them were Triple Crown main events (Roczen in Glendale TC Mains 1 and 2, Roczen in Arlington TC Main 1, Tomac in Arlington TC Main 2). That leaves just 2 riders that have won a 450 main event wire-to-wire in 2020. That’s Ken Roczen in Atlanta and Cooper Webb in Salt Lake City.
Maybe most interesting is how rare it is for both classes to have wire-to-wire winners on the same night. Since 2013, it’s only happened 16x for an average of 2x a year. And the final fact to share on this relatively obscure stat is that Marvin Musquin and Ryan Dungey are the only 2 riders to win wire-to-wire on the same night more than once. They did so in 2015 at Rounds 7 (Arlington) and 13 (St Louis).
Another thing we hear a lot about is the power of the Star Racing Yamaha and the relative advantage that provides their riders. But is that *really* the case!? The quick answer is… absolutely not. Since 2016, the Pro Circuit Monster Energy Kawasaki bike has pulled 38 holeshots compared to the Star Racing Yamaha with only 15. The Pro Circuit Kawasaki has pulled 153% more holeshots than the Star Racing Yamaha in the last 5 years! No question the rider has something to do with it, but looking at the stats, I think Mitch’s crew over at Pro Circuit needs a bit more credit.
Last but not least, Mike Sweeney had a great question on Twitter… “has any brand dominated LCQ’s like Suzuki this year?” I thought for sure he was onto something till I looked at the stats. Suzuki has only won the LCQ 3x this year. Ryan Breece in Daytona, Jimmy Decotis in Tampa, and Kyle Cunningham in Arlington. However, the bike brand with the most LCQ wins this year is… Honda with 8 followed by Husqvarna with 7. That said, Suzuki does have the best average LCQ finish in both classes, a 6.8 in the 250’s and a 7.1 in the 450’s.
Hope you enjoyed this weeks version of Advanced Analytics. Check out the Round 14 key stats and box scores for each class below. As always, drop me a line on Twitter or Instagram @3lapsdown with any questions or just to bench race. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
450 KEY STATS
- Ken Roczen put down the fastest lap time of the night further highlighting that we’d have been in for a great 2nd half of the season if it weren’t for his respiratory issues.
- Zach Osborne is 1 of 4 riders that has finished inside the Top 10 with a Gate Pick of 15 or higher, and he’s done it twice (2nd at Round 14 in SLC and 4th at Round 3 in Anaheim).
- Yet another bad start by Eli Tomac and yet another charge through the pack, adding yet another +9 to his season leading +65 Net Position Changes. He now has +35 more position changes (+116%) more than Justin Barcia who sits 2nd in this stat category.
450 BOX SCORE
250 KEY STATS
- There were 8 riders within 1 second of each other for best lap compared to just 2 riders for the 250 East round this past Sunday. No question the West Coast is more competitive.
- Rookies will be Rookies. Both of the Lawrence brothers showed just how hard it is to be a top contender in your rookie year of supercross tonight. Both had best lap times within a second of the winner, but each of them finished outside the Top 10 as a result of crashes. #thefutureisbright
- While Austin Forkner’s performance was near perfect, with only two rounds remaining, he’s going to need some help making up a 10 point deficit.
250 Box Score