Welcome to another edition of Advanced Analytics.
Let’s start with a quote from Weston Peick via Twitter, “loving the boooooooooooossss on the Frenchie at A2 there’s no reason to ride like a punk when your clearly faster than another rider.” This was in response to Dylan Ferrandis taking out both himself and Christian Craig on lap 9 of the 250 main event. Weston’s got a point when you look at the numbers.
Regardless of what side you’re on, I think we can all agree the racing was intense this weekend. In each class, holeshots and first lap position weren’t nearly as important as normal. The track was a key factor. The 2 big whoops sections, a slippery surface, and multiple tricky rhythm sections created a chance for the best to rise to the top and the numbers shine a light on these riders.
With that in mind, the Stat of the Night is Best Lap Time. Eli Tomac was 0.93 seconds faster than Blake Baggett. Jett Lawrence was 0.09 seconds faster than Dylan Ferrandis. All four of these riders showed strength in every part of the track and not surprisingly, were in a position to win at some point in the main event.
Hope you enjoy the analysis. If you got ideas on how to improve this column, got a stats idea, or just want to bench race, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram @3lapsdown.
250 CLASS ADVANCED ANALYTICS
Stat of the Race
This ones a tough call given the amount of action in the main event, but the nod goes to Best Lap Time for Jett Lawrence. What’s not to like about this kid!? He’s eaten donuts on the podium, dropped the word diarrhea on multiple shows, called his brother a sister on a live TV broadcast with thousands of viewers, and now had the fastest lap in a main event at the age of 16. The future is bright and we the fans will benefit for years to come.
Honorable mention for Austin Forkner’s -14 position change after a brutal fall in the whoops. This title is looking a lot more blue right now.
Gate Pick Tracker
Three of the top six riders had 19th, 20th, and 21st gate picks (Mosiman, Martin, and Clout) and finished inside the top ten while the top two gate picks finished outside the top ten (Forkner and Craig). Gate picks were not the factors they were in the previously two rounds.
Privateer Spotlight
Killian Auberson snagged a career high 10th place. In the first two rounds he faded a bit after good starts, but this week he gained +1 position and was close to Stud status. He’s making a bid to escape Privateer Island.
Week 3 Shaker & Stud, Fader & Dud Awards
Disclaimer: It’s hard to give out a Fader or Dud award when you’re talking about the fastest supercross riders in the world. I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list though the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Shaker
Michael Mosiman charged from 10th position to finish 4th, not to mention he once again had to transfer from the Last Chance Qualifier. It’s not been an easy year for the likable Californian but he’s got to be happy with how the night ended.
Stud
Jett Lawrence gets this one. Even though he knocked himself out and broke his collarbone on the last lap, he still finished 9th place.
Fader
Aaron Tanti takes the trophy here even though fantasy owners are likely happy with 32 pts. He started 9th and faded back to 13th.
Dud
I’m sure the TLD team news will provide more details, but Derek Drake started in 21st position, looks to have crashed on lap 5, and ultimately finished in 18th. A factory bike needs to be closer to the front.
450 CLASS ADVANCED ANALYTICS
Stat of the Race
Eli Tomac’s +9 position changes in 8 laps! If you follow me on social media, you saw that he’s only been off the podium once at round 3 in his 450 career. We’ve talked at length about his January struggles, but round 3 is an exception.
Honorable mention to Blake Baggett’s -12 position change. He was on fire in the early laps and a mistake on lap 4 cost him. It looked like he made a last minute decision to switch lines and he pushed the front end. With the second fastest lap of the night he would’ve could’ve should’ve challenged Tomac for the win.
Gate Pick Tracker
Contrary to the 250 class, the top three gate picks finished on the podium. Props to Zach Osborne and Justin Brayton who had 18th and 13th gate pick and finished inside the top ten.
Round 3 and on…
Justin Barcia has averaged 10.3 position at round 3 since his rookie year in 2013. His round 1 average is 5.4 and round 2 average is 5.6. His average for rounds 3 through 17 is 9.1. He’s the opposite of Eli Tomac. He kills it in January but hasn’t put it together the rest of the year and last night was no different. He’s obviously still in the championship fight just -3 points back of Ken Roczen, but he needs a good ride next week.
Privateer Spotlight
Martin Davalos was fastest in the early qualifying session, was 18th on the first lap of the main, moved forward +5 positions, and finished 13th. That’s progress for the rookie.
Week 3 Shaker & Stud, Fader & Dud Awards
Disclaimer: It’s hard to give out a Fader or Dud award when you’re talking about the fastest supercross riders in the world. I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list though the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story.
Shaker
Eli Tomac. He went 2018 beast mode passing 8 of the best supercross riders in the world in a mere 4 laps, closed a 3 second gap and passed another multi-time champion, and then pulled a 5 second lead.
Stud
Props to Zach Osborne on a well earned 4th place after a disastrous heat race where he dropped -8 positions. That’s mental fortitude from a veteran rider.
Fader
Aaron Plessinger takes the award from Justin Hill this week, dropping -11 positions in the main event. It was great to see him in the mix early but a fall on lap 7 didn’t help his cause. The progress does feel eerily similar to his rookie year before his injury in Daytona. Maybe we’ll see more of the #7 upfront in weeks to come.
Dud
Alex Ray started in 21st position and finished 21st.
