Super Stats: Startcross? Reviewing Holeshot data through 10 Rounds of Supercross

Startcross?

I was given a spreadsheet with holeshot data from the first 10 rounds of Supercross in 2024 and after some analysis and review, “Startcross” might be a fair assessment. Here’s why:

A few quick notes:

I am treating Triple Crown individual races as the same as standard Main Events for this analysis.
The data from the Anaheim 2 Triple Crown Race 3 was way off, it said Plessinger started 17th when he started 3rd…so for this race I fixed the data by watching the race highlights. I also had to make a tweak to another round or two where it didn’t include every rider so those were added as well.
The holeshot data doesn’t always coincide with the AMA credited holeshot, #NeverChangeAMA
This data is separate from the “Start Position” from the AMA, that data is the rider’s position at the end of lap 1 when they cross the finish line.

Quick Takeaways:

In the 14 races so this year (remember, I am counting Triple Crown mains/motos the same as regular Main Events):

Race Winners

The average holeshot position for race winners is 2.43.

The lowest holeshot position for a race winners is:

6th place, Eli Tomac at Anaheim 2 Triple Crown Race 3
4th place, Jett Lawrence at Daytona for standard races

Podiums

The average Holeshot position for podium finishers is 4.19.

Only 3 times has a rider finished on the podium holeshotting outside the Top 10:

Jett Lawrence at Glendale
Ken Roczen at Birmingham
Ken Roczen at Anaheim 2 Triple Crown Race 1

Riders with the holeshot are 9/14 for getting a podium, the 5 instances they didn’t podium are:

Jett Lawrence – 4th at Arlington (remember he crashed late twice)
Jorge Prado – 8th Anaheim 2 Triple Crown Race 2
Justin Cooper – 11th Glendale
Justin Cooper – 14th Glendale
Vince Friese – 16th Anaheim 2 Triple Crown Race 3

Laps Led

Other than Tomac starting 6th at Anaheim 2 TC Race 3, everyone who has led a lap this season has holeshotted 4th or better.

Holeshot Averages

This table shows the average holeshot position among riders (minimum 8 race starts out of 14).

Rank	Rider	Race Starts	Holeshot Avg
1	Jett Lawrence	14	5.29
2	Cooper Webb	14	5.43
3	Justin Cooper	13	6.69
4	Chase Sexton	14	7.00
5	Aaron Plessinger	14	7.29
6	Hunter Lawrence	12	7.58
7	Eli Tomac	14	7.71
8	Ken Roczen	14	7.93
9	Jason Anderson	14	8.93
10	Adam Cianciarulo	8	10.13
11	Dylan Ferrandis	11	10.27
12	Justin Barcia	14	11.79
13	Malcolm Stewart	14	12.21
14	Shane McElrath	14	13.79
15	Justin Hill	8	14.13
16	Christian Craig	8	14.75
17	Fredrik Noren	13	16.08
18	Kyle Chisholm	11	16.91
19	Benny Bloss	12	17.50
20	Derek Drake	10	18.10

This next table shows the holeshot average rank with where the rider ranks in the points standings (minimum 8 race starts). Because of the 8 race start minimum, Jorge Prado and Dean Wilson are left off this next list. Out of the top 22 in points, Prado and Wilson are the only ones not on this list.

Rider	Race Starts	Holeshot Avg	HS Avg Rank	Points	Points Rank
Jett Lawrence	14	5.29	1	210	1
Cooper Webb	14	5.43	2	189	2
Justin Cooper	13	6.69	3	120	8
Chase Sexton	14	7.00	4	185	3
Aaron Plessinger	14	7.29	5	162	7
Hunter Lawrence	12	7.58	6	98	12
Eli Tomac	14	7.71	7	174	5
Ken Roczen	14	7.93	8	175	4
Jason Anderson	14	8.93	9	165	6
Adam Cianciarulo	8	10.13	10	55	14
Dylan Ferrandis	11	10.27	11	107	10
Justin Barcia	14	11.79	12	109	9
Malcolm Stewart	14	12.21	13	104	11
Shane McElrath	14	13.79	14	85	13
Justin Hill	8	14.13	15	29	18*
Christian Craig	8	14.75	16	39	17*
Fredrik Noren	13	16.08	17	21	20*
Kyle Chisholm	11	16.91	18	41	15*
Benny Bloss	12	17.50	19	41	16*
Derek Drake	10	18.10	20	29	19*

* = Jorge Prado and Dean Wilson are left off this table, so these riders are bumped up two spots from their actual championship standing.

Here is the rank correlation for Holeshot Average Rank vs Points Standing Position Rank:

This has a correlation of 0.877, which is very high! 1 is a perfect correlation.

So holeshot average is pretty correlated with championship position standing for 2024, what about average race finish?

This next table shows the holeshot average rank with where the rider ranks average race finish (minimum 8 race starts).

Rider	Race Starts	Holeshot Avg	HS Average Rank	Avg Race Finish	Avg Race Finish Rank
Jett Lawrence	14	5.29	1	2.93	1
Cooper Webb	14	5.43	2	4.50	3
Justin Cooper	13	6.69	3	8.46	8
Chase Sexton	14	7.00	4	4.14	2
Aaron Plessinger	14	7.29	5	6.21	7
Hunter Lawrence	12	7.58	6	9.83	9
Eli Tomac	14	7.71	7	5.64	5
Ken Roczen	14	7.93	8	5.07	4
Jason Anderson	14	8.93	9	5.71	6
Adam Cianciarulo	8	10.13	10	13.00	13
Dylan Ferrandis	11	10.27	11	10.18	10
Justin Barcia	14	11.79	12	10.93	12
Malcolm Stewart	14	12.21	13	10.86	11
Shane McElrath	14	13.79	14	13.93	14
Justin Hill	8	14.13	15	16.38	17
Christian Craig	8	14.75	16	15.13	15
Fredrik Noren	13	16.08	17	19.54	20
Kyle Chisholm	11	16.91	18	16.09	16
Benny Bloss	12	17.50	19	18.08	19
Derek Drake	10	18.10	20	17.80	18

Here is the rank correlation for Holeshot Average Rank vs Average Race Finish Rank:

This has a correlation of 0.919, which is also very high! 1 is a perfect correlation.

This should be highly correlated but I was surprised to see it this high up. Think about it, the top riders will have the best qualifying times, then the best heat races finishes and then have the best gate picks for the main. This is a lot of time to shuffle out the order to where it should be by the end of the night show. However, there are still riders who can outperform their starting position like Justin Cooper and Vince Friese.

The thing I am now curious to know about is whether this data is unique to 2024 or has it pretty much always been this way? I feel like its probably always been this way to an extent but 2024 is to a higher level, the correlation between holeshot position rank and championship standing rank is very, very high. And also we are just 10 rounds in, the standings will have more shake ups with injuries as the season continues.

So is this Startcross? I think the data says so, but data isn’t everything. Tomac at the A2 TC race 3 holeshotted 6th, but he was in lead by the end of the first rhythm section (and he basically crossed the white line at the exact same time as 4th to the line). I think it is essentially Startcross until we see someone (probably Jett) start well into the back of the pack at the holeshot line and just rip through the pack on the way to victory. We haven’t seen that yet so far this year.

Thanks for reading! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference