We are now 12 rounds into the 2024 season with 9 standard main event rounds and 3 triple crown rounds giving us 18 race starts to examine data from.
When comparing rider’s holeshot position to their end of lap 1 position, we can gain some insight to who has succeeded and struggled over the first lap.
Quick Notes:
- Triple Crown races are treated the same as main events for this
- A few tweaks are made to some of the holeshot data, correcting some errors
- The “Start Position” data point comes from the AMA data – which is the rider’s position at the end of the first credited lap
Net Positions Gained on Lap 1 in 2024
Including Triple Crowns, minimum 10 race starts
| Rank | Rider | Race Starts | Net Positions Gained/Lost on Lap 1 |
| 1 | Aaron Plessinger | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Shane McElrath | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Ken Roczen | 18 | 25 |
| 4 | Cooper Webb | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Justin Barcia | 18 | 17 |
| 6 | Dylan Ferrandis | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Eli Tomac | 18 | 10 |
| 8 | Jason Anderson | 18 | 9 |
| 9 | Chase Sexton | 18 | 6 |
| 10 | Malcolm Stewart | 18 | 4 |
| 10 | Derek Drake | 11 | 4 |
| 12 | Kyle Chisholm | 14 | 2 |
| 13 | Hunter Lawrence | 16 | -6 |
| Justin Hill | 11 | -6 | |
| 15 | Fredrik Noren | 16 | -9 |
| 16 | Benny Bloss | 14 | -13 |
| 17 | Jett Lawrence | 18 | -18 |
| Justin Cooper | 17 | -18 | |
| Cade Clason | 10 | -18 | |
| 20 | Adam Cianciarulo | 10 | -27 |
| 21 | Vince Friese | 11 | -44 |
- Aaron Plessinger leads the way here and has made up a lot of positions on lap 1 throughout the year
- I was surprised to see McElrath this high, but he has only lost positions in 4 of 18 races on lap 1, but he does move backwards more from the holeshot to race finish
- Roczen’s holeshot positions have been very hit or miss this year, and his lap 1 pace is always very strong so not surprising to see him this high up
- Seeing Jett Lawrence towards the bottom makes sense when you consider he has holeshotted 7 times, so there is no where to go but down. And he lost a ton of positions at the latest St. Louis Triple Crown Race 3
- Justin Cooper has always been a top starter in the sport, unfortunately he loses quite a few spots in the first lap
- I don’t think its any surprise to see Vince Friese in the last spot here. Friese to his credit is an incredible starter, however, in every race this year Friese has lost positions on lap 1
Most Positions Gained on Lap 1 – Individual Races
| Rank | Rider | Race | Lap 1 Positions Gained |
| 1 | Jeremy Hand | St. Louis TC Race 3 | 9 |
| Justin Hill | St. Louis TC Race 3 | 9 | |
| 3 | Christian Craig | Anaheim 1 | 8 |
| Eli Tomac | Anaheim 2 TC Race 1 | 8 | |
| Ryan Breece | Seattle | 8 | |
| Aaron Plessinger | St. Louis TC Race 3 | 8 | |
| 7 | Dean Wilson | San Diego | 7 |
| Ken Roczen | Anaheim 2 TC Race 1 | 7 | |
| Shane McElrath | Anaheim 2 TC Race 1 | 7 | |
| Dean Wilson | Arlington | 7 | |
| Malcolm Stewart | St. Louis TC Race 1 | 7 | |
| Aaron Plessinger | St. Louis TC Race 2 | 7 |
- How about Jeremy Hand and Justin Hill!
- Its interesting that 8 of the 12 instances above are Triple Crowns, perhaps there is more chaos in the early laps of Triple Crowns?
- Furthermore, while not entirely shown in the chart, 18 of the top 28 individual lap 1 positions gained are also from Triple Crowns…
Most Positions Lost on Lap 1 – Individual Races
| Rank | Rider | Race | Lap 1 Positions Lost |
| 1 | Mitchell Oldenburg | St. Louis TC Race 1 | -20 |
| 2 | Adam Cianciarulo | St. Louis TC Race 1 | -18 |
| 3 | Jett Lawrence | St. Louis TC Race 3 | -15 |
| 4 | Vince Friese | Anaheim 1 | -13 |
| 5 | Malcolm Stewart | Anaheim 1 | -12 |
| Benny Bloss | Glendale | -12 | |
| Mitchell Oldenburg | St. Louis TC Race 2 | -12 | |
| 6 | Chase Sexton | San Diego | -11 |
| Luke Kalaitzian | Anaheim 2 TC Race 1 | -11 | |
| Jason Anderson | Anaheim 2 TC Race 3 | -11 | |
| Jason Anderson | St. Louis TC Race 3 | -11 | |
| 10 | Malcolm Stewart | San Diego | -10 |
| Jett Lawrence | Anaheim 2 TC Race 1 | -10 | |
| Chase Sexton | St. Louis TC Race 1 | -10 | |
| Jeremy Hand | St. Louis TC Race 2 | -10 |
- I would guess that almost all of these instances are due to crashes
- Once again, we see 10 of the 15 examples here are from Triple Crowns
- Out of all the instances above, only Chase Sexton at San Diego, Jason Anderson at A2 TC Race 3 and Jett Lawerence at A2 TC Race 1 recovered to Top 10 finishes in the final result
Holeshot Position Average vs End of Lap 1 Position Average
Including Triple Crowns, minimum 10 race starts
| Rider | Race Starts | HS Avg | End of Lap 1 Avg | plus/minus |
| Jett Lawrence | 18 | 5.17 | 6.17 | -1.00 |
| Cooper Webb | 18 | 6.33 | 5.28 | +1.06 |
| Chase Sexton | 18 | 6.39 | 6.06 | +0.33 |
| Eli Tomac | 18 | 7.28 | 6.72 | +0.56 |
| Hunter Lawrence | 16 | 7.44 | 7.81 | -0.38 |
| Vince Friese | 11 | 7.73 | 11.73 | -4.00 |
| Justin Cooper | 17 | 8.00 | 9.06 | -1.06 |
| Aaron Plessinger | 18 | 8.39 | 6.33 | +2.06 |
| Ken Roczen | 18 | 8.44 | 7.06 | +1.39 |
| Adam Cianciarulo | 10 | 8.60 | 11.40 | -2.80 |
| Jason Anderson | 18 | 9.11 | 8.61 | +0.50 |
| Dylan Ferrandis | 11 | 10.27 | 9.00 | +1.27 |
| Justin Barcia | 18 | 11.67 | 10.72 | +0.94 |
| Shane McElrath | 18 | 12.06 | 10.61 | +1.44 |
| Malcolm Stewart | 18 | 12.56 | 12.33 | +0.22 |
| Justin Hill | 11 | 13.73 | 14.27 | -0.55 |
| Cade Clason | 10 | 15.60 | 17.40 | -1.80 |
| Fredrik Noren | 16 | 16.31 | 16.88 | -0.56 |
| Kyle Chisholm | 14 | 17.07 | 16.93 | +0.14 |
| Benny Bloss | 14 | 17.14 | 18.07 | -0.93 |
| Derek Drake | 11 | 17.18 | 16.82 | +0.36 |
We can see here on average that riders most stay within a position or two of their holeshot position at the end of lap 1. Vince Friese is the only true outlier here.
Holeshot Position vs End of Lap 1 Position Correlation
No surprise to see a high correlation here. In this photo, any repeats aren’t shown very well – for example there are 9 instances of the rider holeshotting still being in first place at the end of lap 1, but it only shows once.
Thanks for reading! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference
