If we were to compare where the fastest qualifier in the 250 Motocross class would place in 450 Motocross class qualifying, where would they place?
For Motocross, we have qualifying data back to 2007. Unfortunately, the AMA data is unavailable for a few rounds: 2007 Budds Creek, 2007 Steel City, 2008 Hangtown and 2015 Thunder Valley
But we still have 197 races to compare from 2007 through the first round of 2024.
Average Qualifying Position
In the 197 races we have to compare, the average position the fastest 250 qualifier would place in the 450 class is 4.28.
Breakdown by year:
| Year | Average Qualifying Position |
| 2007 | 4.30 |
| 2008 | 4.45 |
| 2009 | 2.75 |
| 2010 | 5.25 |
| 2011 | 6.67 |
| 2012 | 2.67 |
| 2013 | 3.83 |
| 2014 | 4.67 |
| 2015 | 4.73 |
| 2016 | 5.17 |
| 2017 | 5.08 |
| 2018 | 3.25 |
| 2019 | 3.50 |
| 2020 | 4.44 |
| 2021 | 5.75 |
| 2022 | 3.42 |
| 2023 | 2.73 |
| 2024 (1 Round) | 6.00 |
Not including 2024 in the chart due to sample size.
Highest and Lowest Position
The fastest 250MX Qualifier has outqualified the fastest 450MX qualifier 35 times dating back to 2007.
Interestingly, this has happened the most times at High Point – where 7 times since 2007, the 250MX fastest qualifier outqualified the fastest 450 rider.
It even happened in 2008 during James Stewart’s perfect season, where Austin Stroupe had a faster qualifying time at High Point.
Eli Tomac and Justin Cooper both have the most times outqualifying the top 450 rider doing so 5 times each.
The lowest position the fastest 250MX qualifier would have placed since 2007 is 17th place. This was at Southwick 2011.
12 times since 2007, they would have placed 10th or worse.
Largest Time Gaps from 450 Pole Position
The largest gap between the top 450 rider and 250 rider is 11.787 seconds, happening at Ironman 2014. Where Eli Tomac outqualified Jeremy Martin by 11.787 seconds. It should be noted that this was a mud race.
The largest gap a 250 outqualified a 450 by was 10.667 seconds at 2018 Ironman, another mud race. At this race, Hunter Sayles was on pole in the 250 class! He outqualified Eli Tomac by 10.667 seconds. This was a wild qualifying session as the first 250 session had much faster times due to the weather. All but six first session riders qualified for the motos. Big names such as Shane McElrath and Austin Forkner did not qualify for the motos that day.
Average Time Gaps from 450 Pole Position
On Average, the 450 Pole position rider outqualifies the 250 rider by 1.309 seconds.
| Year | Average Time Gap |
| 2007 | 1.700 |
| 2008 | 2.406 |
| 2009 | 0.387 |
| 2010 | 1.719 |
| 2011 | 2.701 |
| 2012 | 0.407 |
| 2013 | 0.489 |
| 2014 | 1.481 |
| 2015 | 1.299 |
| 2016 | 1.454 |
| 2017 | 2.019 |
| 2018 | 0.447 |
| 2019 | 0.600 |
| 2020 | 1.008 |
| 2021 | 1.821 |
| 2022 | 0.735 |
| 2023 | 1.472 |
| 2024 (1 round) | 3.818 |
Not including 2024 in the chart due to sample size.
From this histogram, we can see the time differences between the fastest 450MX and 250MX have just a few large outliers.
I am not too surprised that the average gap is 1.309 seconds. However, it would be interesting to see the differences between say the 5th fastest 450MX qualifier and the 5th fastest 250MX qualifier and so on. I think at some point there would start to be a larger divergence in times. Where that would be? I’d have to do more analysis on the topic.
Thanks for reading! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference
