Super Stats: 450 Motocross Average Qualifying Position vs Average Overall Finish

After looking into Phil Nicoletti’s average qualifying positions vs his career finishes and 450MX riders finishes in Moto 1 vs Moto 2. I thought I would review how riders fare in qualifying vs the actual race and how improves and who doesn’t.

I have 450MX qualifying data back to 2007 and only a few rounds of data are missing (2007 Budds Creek, 2007 Freestone and 2008 Hangtown – the pages on the AMA archives are blank for these).

Therefore, I am only going to show riders results and averages for 2007 to present. I will note which riders this applies to as many on here have lots of results before 2007.

One other point to mention is that I only track the results for who automatically qualifies into the motos. So for example, right now in 2024, the top 36 in qualifying results automatically get a spot into the motos – I only track those top 36. Everyone else races for the last spots in the 4 lap consolation race or gets in if a rider doesn’t end up racing or injury etc.

The point I’m getting at is that some riders in the data I have will have, for example 45 overall finishes but only 38 qualifying records. This shouldn’t skew the data too much as I am only including riders with a minimum of 25 career overall results in 450 Motocross.

Data is updated through round 8 of the 2024 Pro Motocross season.

Okay, on to the data.

Best Average Improvement from Qualifying to Overall Finish (Total Difference)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Avg Qualifying Pos	Avg Overall Finish	Difference
1	Jason Thomas (2007 and after)	38	28.13	20.76	7.36
2	Toshiki Tomita	35	27.65	20.31	7.33
3	John Short	42	26.59	19.38	7.21
4	Derek Anderson	39	27.68	23.18	4.50
5	Henry Miller	47	21.22	17.11	4.12
6	Grant Harlan	35	20.64	16.80	3.84
7	Noah McConahy	35	26.62	23.17	3.45
8	Zack Williams	35	29.96	26.63	3.33
9	Evgeny Mikhaylov	37	27.46	24.30	3.16
10	Nick Wey (2007 and after)	69	17.42	14.54	2.88
11	Weston Peick	95	18.30	15.44	2.86
12	Phil Nicoletti	80	15.36	12.61	2.75
13	Cade Clason	26	26.50	24.19	2.31
14	Tyler Bowers	39	21.03	18.77	2.26
15	Brett Metcalfe	46	8.09	6.00	2.09

JT leads the way! A 7 position difference is very impressive! Toshiki Tomita and John Short also have a 7 position difference
Brett Metcalfe is the one top 10 guy on this list, the total difference favors riders in the 15-30 range as we can see in the table. I’ll show the percentage difference next
Its impressive to see riders like Weston Peick and Phil Nicoletti that have 80+ starts still show average improvement over that many races

Best Average Improvement from Qualifying to Overall Finish (Percentage Difference)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Avg Qualifying Pos	Avg Overall Finish	Qual to OVR % Change
1	Ryan Dungey	87	4.14	2.61	-36.94%
2	John Short	42	26.59	19.38	-27.11%
3	Toshiki Tomita	35	27.65	20.31	-26.52%
4	Jason Thomas (2007 and after)	38	28.13	20.76	-26.18%
5	Brett Metcalfe	46	8.09	6.00	-25.81%
6	Andrew Short	110	9.46	7.48	-20.93%
7	Henry Miller	47	21.22	17.11	-19.40%
8	Grant Harlan	35	20.64	16.80	-18.59%
9	Phil Nicoletti	80	15.36	12.61	-17.90%
10	Nick Wey (2007 and after)	69	17.42	14.54	-16.54%
11	Derek Anderson	39	27.68	23.18	-16.27%
12	Weston Peick	95	18.30	15.44	-15.64%
13	Dean Wilson	48	12.38	10.48	-15.32%
14	Eli Tomac	92	3.40	2.93	-13.74%
15	Noah McConahy	35	26.62	23.17	-12.95%

With the percentage difference we see a few more top 10 guys here
Dungey’s stats in the 450 Class are insane, his consistency is wild…and this data includes his 2022 comeback season
If you remove his 2022 season, his Avg Qualifying Pos is 3.61 and his Avg Overall Finish is 1.97….a -45.43% change!
JT still comes in at fourth in terms of percentage change here
Similar group of names on this list compared to the total difference, but we see some pretty big names in Eli Tomac, Andrew Short and Dean Wilson

Worst Average Improvement from Qualifying to Overall Finish (Total Difference)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Avg Qualifying Pos	Avg Overall Finish	Difference
1	Jerry Robin	33	16.76	26.55	-9.79
2	Jeremy Smith	53	20.32	28.92	-8.60
3	Josh Hill	25	9.87	15.84	-5.97
4	Jerry Lorenz	28	27.86	33.82	-5.96
5	Alex Ray	39	23.63	29.49	-5.86
6	James Stewart (2007 and after)	49	2.94	8.29	-5.35
7	Joey Savatgy	38	7.62	12.74	-5.12
8	Tyler Stepek	33	23.06	27.58	-4.51
9	Jacob Marsack (2007 and after)	26	26.13	30.04	-3.91
11	Vince Friese	36	19.00	22.81	-3.81
	Adam Cianciarulo	26	2.81	6.62	-3.81
12	Travis Sewell (2007 and after)	56	24.07	27.80	-3.73
13	Bobby Fitch (2007 and after)	25	28.73	32.32	-3.59
14	Justin Sipes	29	22.32	25.90	-3.58
15	Tommy Hahn	49	11.88	15.33	-3.45

Jerry…
Okay this made me curious and I looked into Jerry Robin’s moto finishes, in his 64 motos he competed in, only 9 are in the 21^st to 30^th range…so essentially 85% of the time Jerry is either top 20 or DNFs
Not a huge surprise to see James Stewart here with how fast he always is in qualifying.
Also not surprising to see Adam Cianciarulo with how strong and fast he was at the start of his 450MX career

Worst Average Improvement from Qualifying to Overall Finish (Percentage Difference)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Avg Qualifying Pos	Avg Overall Finish	Quali to OVR % change
1	James Stewart (2007 and after)	49	2.94	8.29	182.07%
2	Adam Cianciarulo	26	2.81	6.62	135.62%
3	Joey Savatgy	38	7.62	12.74	67.25%
4	Jason Anderson	71	4.30	7.06	64.26%
5	Josh Hill	25	9.87	15.84	60.49%
6	Jerry Robin	33	16.76	26.55	58.41%
7	Jeremy Smith	53	20.32	28.92	42.34%
8	Kevin Windham (2007 and after)	26	5.46	7.69	40.93%
9	Ivan Tedesco (2007 and after)	34	8.74	11.85	35.59%
10	Josh Grant	72	7.16	9.57	33.61%
11	Trey Canard	36	4.69	6.19	31.95%
12	Chad Reed (2007 and after)	61	8.02	10.49	30.87%
13	Cooper Webb	45	5.89	7.64	29.81%
14	Tommy Hahn	49	11.88	15.33	29.04%
15	Cody Cooper	45	11.88	15.29	28.65%

With the relative difference we now see more top end riders, which makes sense
James Stewart and AC’s percentages here might make them look bad at first, but when you’re often the fastest, you can only get really get worse
I was a bit surprised to see Anderson here, figured he was pretty consistently 6-7ish in outdoors qualifying compared to his overall finishes
Jerry Robin and Jeremy Smith are the only two on this list with an average overall finish in the 20s

Closest Average Finishes between Qualifying to Overall Finish (Total Difference)

For simplicity, for these I made all the numbers here positive to show the difference.

Rank	Rider	Starts	Avg Qualifying Pos	Avg Overall Finish	Difference
1	Nathen LaPorte	34	31.80	31.82	0.02
2	Ken Roczen	85	3.45	3.39	0.06
3	Ben Lamay	118	19.70	19.81	0.11
	Lorenzo Locurcio	33	19.53	19.42	0.11
5	Ryan Villopoto	26	2.65	2.54	0.12
6	Scott Meshey	37	29.22	29.05	0.16
7	Vann Martin	27	29.00	28.81	0.19
8	Ronnie Stewart	69	27.47	27.68	0.21
9	Marvin Musquin	66	4.67	4.39	0.27
10	Chase Sexton	47	3.04	3.38	0.34
11	Jake Weimer	44	11.34	10.91	0.43
12	Eli Tomac	92	3.40	2.93	0.47
13	Justin Barcia	109	6.60	6.07	0.52
14	Kevin Rookstool	51	26.48	25.94	0.54
15	Antonio Balbi (2007 and after)	36	18.03	18.58	0.55

Nathen LaPorte leads the way here
Not surprised to see Roczen and Villopoto scoring highly in consistency here
I was surprised to see Sexton here, I didn’t think he would be super inconsistent or anything, however, I figured with how fast he is in qualifying, there would be a larger drop off in overall finishes. However, in the history of the 450MX class (previously 250), Chase Sexton is actually 7^th all-time in career average overall finish (minimum 20 starts) (with a minimum of 30 starts, he is 6^th all-time) as of this writing
I also didn’t realized how many starts Justin Barcia has had in his 450MX career, 109 and counting!

Closest Average Finishes between Qualifying to Overall Finish (Percentage Difference)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Avg Qualifying Pos	Avg Overall Finish	Quali to OVR % change
1	Nathen LaPorte	34	31.80	31.82	0.07%
2	Lorenzo Locurcio	33	19.53	19.42	0.55%
3	Ben Lamay	118	19.70	19.81	0.56%
	Scott Meshey	37	29.22	29.05	0.56%
5	Vann Martin	27	29.00	28.81	0.64%
6	Ronnie Stewart	69	27.47	27.68	0.78%
7	Ken Roczen	85	3.45	3.39	1.71%
8	Kevin Rookstool	51	26.48	25.94	2.02%
9	Jarred Browne	25	24.58	23.92	2.70%
10	Antonio Balbi (2007 and after)	36	18.03	18.58	3.07%
11	Nick Fratz-Orr	26	33.31	32.12	3.58%
12	Jake Weimer	44	11.34	10.91	3.81%
13	Bobby Piazza	28	29.57	30.75	3.99%
14	Ryan Villopoto	26	2.65	2.54	4.35%
15	Tony Archer	27	28.48	26.89	5.57%