“You can’t win the championship at A1, but you can lose it.”
This phrase is said every year and especially is brought up after a top level rider has an off night at the season opener.
This year, this is due to Jett Lawrence having an off night where he finished 12th in the main event. While not a total disaster, Jett didn’t look very Jett-like. Or at least to the level we are used to.
People were quick to point out Ricky Carmichael, James Stewart and Ryan Villopoto all overcame bad results at A1 and became champions…
This is true, and here is the opening round results for all eventual champions:
Quick note, I am using “Round 1 Finish” here, as the first race of the year hasn’t always been Anaheim 1 throughout SX history.
| Year | Champion | Round 1 Finish |
| 1974 | Pierre Karsmakers | 1 |
| 1975 | Jimmy Ellis | 1 |
| 1976 | Jim Weinert | 2 |
| 1977 | Bob Hannah | 1 |
| 1978 | Bob Hannah | 3 |
| 1979 | Bob Hannah | 2 |
| 1980 | Mike Bell | 1 |
| 1981 | Mark Barnett | 2 |
| 1982 | Donnie Hansen | 1 |
| 1983 | David Bailey | 1 |
| 1984 | Johnny O’Mara | 1 |
| 1985 | Jeff Ward | 5 |
| 1986 | Rick Johnson | 2 |
| 1987 | Jeff Ward | 1 |
| 1988 | Rick Johnson | 2 |
| 1989 | Jeff Stanton | 2 |
| 1990 | Jeff Stanton | 7 |
| 1991 | Jean-Michel Bayle | 2 |
| 1992 | Jeff Stanton | 3 |
| 1993 | Jeremy McGrath | 4 |
| 1994 | Jeremy McGrath | 1 |
| 1995 | Jeremy McGrath | 1 |
| 1996 | Jeremy McGrath | 1 |
| 1997 | Jeff Emig | 6 |
| 1998 | Jeremy McGrath | 3 |
| 1999 | Jeremy McGrath | 7 |
| 2000 | Jeremy McGrath | 1 |
| 2001 | Ricky Carmichael | 3 |
| 2002 | Ricky Carmichael | 20 |
| 2003 | Ricky Carmichael | 2 |
| 2004 | Chad Reed | 1 |
| 2005 | Ricky Carmichael | 3 |
| 2006 | Ricky Carmichael | 3 |
| 2007 | James Stewart | 1 |
| 2008 | Chad Reed | 1 |
| 2009 | James Stewart | 19 |
| 2010 | Ryan Dungey | 2 |
| 2011 | Ryan Villopoto | 1 |
| 2012 | Ryan Villopoto | 1 |
| 2013 | Ryan Villopoto | 16 |
| 2014 | Ryan Villopoto | 4 |
| 2015 | Ryan Dungey | 4 |
| 2016 | Ryan Dungey | 2 |
| 2017 | Ryan Dungey | 2 |
| 2018 | Jason Anderson | 2 |
| 2019 | Cooper Webb | 5 |
| 2020 | Eli Tomac | 7 |
| 2021 | Cooper Webb | 9 |
| 2022 | Eli Tomac | 6 |
| 2023 | Chase Sexton | 3 |
| 2024 | Jett Lawrence | 1 |
Eventual Champion’s Opening Round Stats:
| Stat | Total | Percentage |
| Wins | 18 | 35.29% |
| Podiums | 37 | 72.55% |
| Top 5s | 42 | 82.35% |
| Top 10s | 48 | 94.12% |
From 1974-2024, only three eventual champions finished outside the top 10 at the opening round of Supercross: Ricky Carmichael 2002, James Stewart 2009 and Ryan Villopoto 2013.
If Jett Lawrence were to win the title this year. He would be the 4th rider in SX history to finish outside the Top 10 at the first round to still become champion.
An interesting note on Carmichael, Stewart and Villopoto though:
Ricky’s 2002 season was his 4th season in the premier class. Stewart was in his 5th season in 2009. And Villopoto was in his 5th season in 2013. These three were a lot more experienced at this point in their careers than Jett Lawrence. Jett is only in his second season in the premier class.
So how were Carmichael, Stewart and Villopoto able to overcome these bad starts to the season?
These were each rider’s “outlier” race of the year.
In 2002, after Anaheim 1, Ricky Carmichael never finished worse than 4th place. In fact, after round 3, Carmichael collected 11 wins and never finished worse than 2nd place.
In 2009, after Anaheim 1, James Stewart finished on the podium in all but one race (Daytona – 7th place). His average finish after A1 was 1.69 with 11 wins.
And in 2013, after Anaheim 1, Ryan Villopoto finished in the top 2 in 14 of the next 16 races. He had a 6th and an 8th, but other than that was always top 2 and collected 10 wins. I would consider an odd 6th or 8th just an off night and not even an outlier.
What it really comes down to: Often, Supercross champions have a “outlier” race throughout the season. In the three examples above, theirs came at the opening round.
Here is a list of Supercross champions with their worst finish of the season being outside the Top 10:
If a year is not listed here, the champion’s worst finish was still within the Top 10.
| Year | Champion | Worst Finish |
| 1978 | Bob Hannah | 12 |
| 1980 | Mike Bell | 11 |
| 1987 | Jeff Ward | 20 |
| 1989 | Jeff Stanton | 20 |
| 1990 | Jeff Stanton | 16 |
| 1991 | Jean-Michel Bayle | 12 |
| 1997 | Jeff Emig | 14 |
| 1998 | Jeremy McGrath | 20 |
| 2002 | Ricky Carmichael | 20 |
| 2006 | Ricky Carmichael | 20 |
| 2008 | Chad Reed | 12 |
| 2009 | James Stewart | 19 |
| 2012 | Ryan Villopoto | 19 |
| 2013 | Ryan Villopoto | 16 |
| 2018 | Jason Anderson | 17 |
Like highlighted before, Carmichael, Stewart and Villopoto had their outlier race in round 1. In all these other instances, these occurred later in the season. Whether at round 1 or elsewhere, these races were not representative of how the rider performed the rest of the year.
In all but one of the cases in the table above, this was that rider’s only non Top 10 of the season. The exception to that is 1998. In 1998, Jeremy McGrath had the 20th place (listed above) as well as a 14th place.
Two races that do not show up in the data here that I want to highlight are Chad Reed at Irving in 2004 and Ryan Villopoto at Jacksonville in 2011.
At Irving 2004, Chad Reed won the race, however, he was penalized 25 points for having illegal fuel. I would count this as his “outlier” race as he scored zero points (every other race he scored at least 20). And this made the championship fight go until the last round that year.
At Jacksonville 2011, Ryan Villopoto failed to qualify for the main event due to heat race and LCQ crashes in the first turn. I would count this as his “outlier” race as well due to scoring zero points.
Back to Anaheim 1
“You can’t win the championship at A1, but you can lose it.”
Now obviously, yes, you can’t actually lose the title at round 1. But what the quote really means is that a poor performance at the first race could end up being what costs a rider the title.
So, has A1 (or the opening round) really ever cost a rider the championship?
No. There is only one season you can maybe make the case for this and its a stretch.
The closest example is 2004:
2004
Kevin Windham lost the title in 2004 to Chad Reed by 9 points. At Anaheim 1, Reed finished 1st, Windham 9th, a 13 point gap. This was Windham’s worst finish of the year and the round he lost the most points at. Had Windham finished 2nd (and everything else played out the same), Windham would have been champion.
However, this one hinges on the champion (Chad Reed) losing 25 points in a race that he won. At Irving that year, Chad Reed was penalized 25 points for illegal fuel as mentioned earlier. This event hurt Reed more than A1 hurt Windham. The title would have wrapped early if not for this penalty.
Other Seasons
For 2004, the runner up (Windham) had his worst finish of the year at the opening round and he lost the most points at this round. There really isn’t any other examples of this in close title fights.
For example in 2011, Chad Reed lost the title to Ryan Villopoto by 4 points. Reed lost 9 points to Villopoto at A1. However, there are instances of Reed losing more points to Villopoto and having worse finishes at other rounds. (And as mentioned before, Villopoto lost a ton of points to a freak DNQ at Jacksonville that year.)
The bottom line, there is no season where a rider had such a terrible round 1 “outlier” race on their season that it cost them the championship.
Thanks for reading!! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram @MXReference
