Super Stats: Qualifying Trends Update Through 10 Rounds 2025 Supercross

We are 10 rounds into the 2025 Supercross season which gives us a good sample size to look at qualifying data over the course of the season and compare it to other seasons.

Since 2003, we have seen qualifying times trend closer and closer – with some minor fluctuations here and there. Here is a chart visualizing this:

Important to remember the 2003-2006 times are the best times collected from practice sessions – not official qualifying times.

We can see a bit of a jump in 2025 (so far) compared to 2024. I think we could see some further separation here with injuries to guys like Eli Tomac and Jett Lawrence – in the first few rounds when these guys were healthy, we saw closer gaps.

Chase Sexton seems to be hitting his stride as well. I would not be surprised if Sexton is the fastest qualifier in every round the rest of the season. Sexton currently has 5 pole positions with 7 rounds to go. This is definitely possible as Sexton had 14 pole positions in 2023. More on Sexton later.

While the overall trend is down over time, this is largely skewed by the Carmichael, Stewart, Reed era of 2003 through 2009. If we adjust the chart to be since 2010 we see a different picture:

Much more flat trendline. And in fact, if we adjust the chart to be since 2020, we actually see a small separation happening:

While this is a low sample size, it is interesting to see the trend reversing even as small as it is.

As for what is driving this? Hard to say, but I think this has a lot to do with Chase Sexton’s speed in qualifying. Here is a breakdown of Sexton and the Top 10 average qualifying gaps to pole position in 2025 (among riders who have competed at all 10 rounds):

We can see quite a gap from Chase Sexton to the rest of the field. Jason Anderson is second here but he is not translating this into results. Anderson has three podiums this year, however, his average race finish is 7.2 and he sits 6th in points.

This is an improvement for Sexton compared to last year, but not compared to 2023:

I could see the 2025 figure getting lower as I think Sexton will pick up several more poles. The 2023 figure is pretty crazy. In fact, only James Stewart in 2009 has a lower gap of any rider since 2003. Sexton’s 2023 % gap is lower than James Stewart in 2007.

But what about the points leader Cooper Webb?

Interestingly Webb’s best season by this metric is still pretty off from Sexton’s best season. We all know raw speed isn’t what has won Webb two titles, but its a bit surprising to see it this way. So far 2025 looks like one of Webb’s down years in the 450 Class. (Webb’s down years are still pretty good in the grand scheme of things.)