It’s the most wonderful time of the year. The holidays and all the chaos they bring are finally over, and we are just days away from the gate dropping on another Supercross season. This year feels different, with more unanswered questions than any season in recent history. With multiple top riders changing teams, new manufacturers making their premier-class debuts, and Jett Lawrence’s preseason injury sidelining him for most of Supercross, the door feels wide open for a special season.
Let’s start with the biggest news. Given recent history and the level he’s been riding at, it would’ve been hard to argue that Jett Lawrence wasn’t the favorite coming into the year. That changed quickly. A preseason injury resulting in fractures to the talus and navicular bones in his right foot has sidelined him, instantly shifting the championship outlook. It’s a reminder of just how quickly the tides can turn in our sport. Hopefully, we’ll see him return healthy and ready to contend for the motocross championship this summer.
So, with Lawrence out, who stands out as the favorite?
Cooper Webb might be the only three-time Supercross Champion consistently viewed as an underdog, but I won’t make that mistake. Webb has to be considered a favorite. While outright speed isn’t always what people talk about with him, history tells us that if Webb is healthy in May, he will be a threat. He enters the season as the reigning champion and one of the few title contenders not switching teams. Could familiarity and continuity be the difference?
The offseason brought some of the biggest factory team changes we’ve seen in years. Chase Sexton moves to Monster Energy Kawasaki, Eli Tomac and Jorge Prado head to Red Bull KTM, and Jason Anderson joins Progressive PMG Suzuki.
Of that group, Sexton feels like the rider most likely to show results early. The Kawasaki appears to be a better natural fit, and we could see the consistent speed he showed during his Honda days. While Sexton had flashes on the KTM, it often felt like a very narrow window where everything had to be perfect for it to show. Tomac’s move to KTM is harder to read. I’m grateful we get more time watching Eli race, but I worry it may not unfold how he or the team hopes. We’ve seen just how critical bike setup is for Tomac’s success, and it remains to be seen whether they’ll find that comfort week in and week out. Add in the reality that he’s another year older, and the margin gets even smaller. Prado may carry the biggest question marks of the group. There’s no clear evidence yet that he can be a top Supercross contender, but he’s been vocal about his past situation and clearly has something to prove. I don’t expect dramatic results early, but consistent top-10 finishes, with a possible late-season top-five wouldn’t surprise me. Jason Anderson could be the sleeper. Based on what we saw in WSX, he’s fast and already comfortable with his new team. While a title run feels unlikely, I fully expect to see him on the podium multiple times this season.
Anaheim won’t just mark the start of the season — for some teams, it marks the beginning of a legacy. Two manufacturers are making their premier-class debuts. Ducati will field Justin Barcia and Dylan Ferrandis, while Triumph brings Austin Forkner into the premier class. Both teams are in a no-lose situation. A top-five finish would turn heads, and a missed main wouldn’t damage their credibility. It may be a rocky first year, but more factory teams in the paddock is always a win for the sport.
The 250 class brings an entirely different set of unknowns. Haiden Deegan has the speed to win, but his aggressive style and past mistakes could become an issue if others capitalize. Levi Kitchen looks poised to build on his SMX momentum, and if he can pressure Deegan early, it could set him up for long-term success. Max Anstie also deserves attention. His WSX speed, experience, and composure could allow him to rise above the chaos and be a real title threat down the stretch.
As we look ahead to Saturday, we’ll likely have more questions than answers. But that uncertainty is exactly what makes this season exciting. As the year unfolds, I’ll be sharing my honest reactions and observations, looking at Supercross from the Outside In.
