So far through 6 rounds in 2026, Ken Roczen and Chase Sexton have had their personal worst holeshot averages dating back to 2015. (I have holeshot data back until 2015.)
This is only counting seasons where they have at least 8 race starts. (Yes, there is an inconsistency with me including 2026 with only 6 rounds so far…but I didn’t want to leave this current season out of this article.)
Good news for both Roczen and Sexton is they have moved up through the pack despite these starts. Roczen’s average holeshot position so far in 2026 is 9.63, however, his average overall race finish is 4.50.
Chase Sexton’s holeshot average so far is 10.25 and his average overall race finish is 5.00.
I wanted to compare the top 450 riders with several seasons under their belts to see how their holeshot averages have changed over time and how that’s impacted their average race finish as well. I’m not including riders like Justin Cooper and Hunter Lawrence as they simply don’t have enough seasons to really show a long career trend.
But I will be breaking down: Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, Cooper Webb, Justin Barcia, Aaron Plessinger, Chase Sexton, and Jason Anderson.
A few quick points beforehand:
- I am including each individual Triple Crown race as its own start towards holeshot averages, but just comparing the overall finish for the finish averages.
- Only including seasons with a minimum of 8 overall race starts – except 2026, still including 2026.
- I have holeshot data back to 2015 so that is as far as this data set will go.
- 2023 East Rutherford holeshot data is unavailable and it was impossible to watch and manually record. Remember this was a crazy mud race. So 2023 East Rutherford is not in the holeshot averages.
Lets begin!
Eli Tomac
Eli Tomac has a lot of seasons to compare and quite a volatile holeshot average season to season! Only twice is his season finish average worse than his holeshot average: 2018 and 2023. 2018 had the bizarre Tomac rounds where he had two last place finishes and a 15th. 2023 is kind of unfair as this is when he tore his achilles in Denver. He holeshotted that race in 3rd and then finish 22nd. If you take away his Denver result, his average finish that year was 2.73!
So far Tomac’s starts in 2026 haven’t been amazing, but he is riding incredibly and has a average finish of 3.67 through 6 rounds.
Ken Roczen
Ken Roczen has just one season where his average finish is worse than his average holeshot position – 2022. This was Roczen’s final season with Honda where he won A1 and then really struggled. So far in 2026, he is off to his worst average holeshot position. This will likely come down in average, however, his holeshots have been very volatile so far in 2026: 8-2-14-1-21-22-3-6. Hopefully, Roczen can continue his success so far in 2026 through the whole season.
Cooper Webb
Cooper Webb’s chart here is pretty amazing, both his starts and finishes show significant improvement from 2017/2018. There is a noticeable drop down starting in 2019. Starting in 2019, every one of Webb’s seasons both stats move together. Worse holeshots? Worse finishes. Better holeshots? Better finishes. 2022 is interesting in Webb’s average finish, this was a “down year” for Webb’s standards. Otherwise the improvement from holeshot average to finish average is relatively the same season to season.
Justin Barcia
Justin Barcia has finished better than his holeshot average in all but 3 seasons: 2016, 2019 and 2025. Barcia’s chart shows a lot of volatility as a whole with a lot swings each direction. Since 2021, his starts have been much improved – except for 2024.
Aaron Plessinger
Aaron Plessinger has been very consistent with his holeshot averages nearly matching his race finish averages. Only in 2025 is his overall finish average slightly worse than his holeshot average. With how close his figures are, it shows across a season the Cowboy will pretty much finish where he starts.
Chase Sexton
Chase Sexton’s holeshot starts this year have not been good compared to the rest of his career. Starting in 2022, his averages move in the same direction, but the jump in holeshot average this year really stands out.
Jason Anderson
Jason Anderson has been pretty consistent over his career in the 450 class, only 2021 stands out for his holeshot averages. 2020 is the only season where his average finish is worse than his holeshot average. Since 2022, his average finish and holeshot positions are extremely close (2024 not as much).
Its pretty impressive how almost all these riders have only rarely finished worse than their holeshot averages, probably why they are all factory riders!
I did want to see if there was an example of a rider with a large sample size who finished worse than his holeshot position frequently. For this, there is Vince Friese:
Vince Friese
Friese has always been a great starter, however, he has always moved backwards as well.
Thanks for reading! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram! @MXReference
