Super Stats: 450 Class Rider Averages from Moto 1 to Moto 2

After Chase Sexton started the year stronger in the second moto vs the first moto it lead me to look into rider’s differences in Moto 1 vs Moto 2. Sexton has since gone 1-1 in back to back races but its still worth investigating for his career and other rider’s careers.

For this I’ll be including riders in the 450 class with at least 30 moto starts in both Moto 1 and Moto 2. I have moto data for the 450 class dating back to 1985. I’ll show the general difference between Moto 1 and 2 and then show the percentage difference for the relative difference.

This data is updated through round 7 of the 2024 Pro Motocross championship.

Best Average Improvement from Moto 1 to Moto 2 (Total Difference)

Rank	Rider	Moto 1 Average	Moto 2 Average	Difference
1	Brian Mason	31.90	27.77	4.13
2	Toshiki Tomita	22.41	18.68	3.74
3	Jacob Marsack	29.49	25.91	3.57
4	Barry Carsten	24.43	21.30	3.14
5	Ray Sommo	17.14	14.29	2.85
6	Jimmy Button	12.06	9.45	2.61
7	Weston Peick	17.80	15.19	2.61
8	Tyler Bowers	20.69	18.23	2.46
9	Dag Boyesen	19.20	16.78	2.42
10	Jason Thomas	19.98	17.60	2.37

Since 1985, Brian Mason has the largest absolute difference in average finishes from Moto 1 to Moto 2
JT makes this list and more impressively for JT, he has far more starts than everyone else in this top 10. JT has 123 career starts, the only rider on the list within 70 starts of JT is Weston Peick with 95.
This list more occupied by riders with lower moto averages. So next we will look at the percentage difference.

Best Average Improvement from Moto 1 to Moto 2 (Percentage Difference)

Rank	Rider	Moto 1 Average	Moto 2 Average	% Difference
1	Jeff Ward	4.42	3.08	-30.35%
2	Ryan Dungey	3.57	2.76	-22.83%
3	Mike Kiedrowski	5.05	3.95	-21.88%
4	Jimmy Button	12.06	9.45	-21.66%
5	Jeff Emig	5.05	3.97	-21.50%
6	Ernesto Fonseca	9.18	7.50	-18.27%
7	Kevin Windham	6.40	5.25	-18.01%
8	Ricky Carmichael	2.05	1.70	-16.67%
	Toshiki Tomita	22.41	18.68	-16.67%
10	Ray Sommo	17.14	14.29	-16.62%

Here we can see the percentage increase that shows top riders that still have a lot of relative improvement.
Jeff Wards leads the way with a 30% improvement from Moto 1 to Moto 2.
We can see a few names from the previous list of the absolute differences, Jimmy Button, Toshiki Tomita and Ray Sommo.
Dungey’s numbers are super impressive, especially considering this includes his 2022 comeback season where he had a bike issue in Washougal finishing 38th in the first moto.
Ricky Carmichael’s averages are just absurd. If you took away his 2006 Glen Helen round where he went 36-38, his Moto 1 average would be 1.66 and his Moto 2 average would be 1.29. Unreal.

Worst Average Improvement from Moto 1 to Moto 2 (Total Difference)

Rank	Rider	Moto 2 Average	Moto 2 Average	Difference
1	Josh Grant	8.82	14.17	-5.35
2	Matthew Goerke	16.74	22.05	-5.30
3	James Stewart	7.70	12.97	-5.27
4	Shane Sewell	23.57	27.87	-4.30
5	Kevin Rookstool	22.80	27.02	-4.22
6	Paul Carpenter	16.52	20.70	-4.18
7	Brian Swink	10.42	14.19	-3.77
8	Keith S Johnson	20.09	23.52	-3.43
9	Tommy Hahn	15.90	19.31	-3.41
10	James Povolny	21.60	24.23	-2.63

Josh Grant comes in first here which was kind of surprising to me, I figured he would be on this list but not number one.
Matthew Georke comes in second. Georke won an overall at Southwick 2009. Since 1985, Georke has the lowest career Overall, Moto 1 and Moto 2 average finishes among race winners with 30 starts.
- Tommy Hahn is next on that list among race winners, he has the second lowest average finish in Overalls, Moto 1 and Moto 2.
I figured James Stewart would be number one on this list with all the races he crashed out of. For a an all-time great, Stewart’s moto finish averages do not rank very high. For example, Brett Metcalfe has a higher career Moto 1 average finish. Broc Tickle and Jake Weimer have higher career Moto 2 finishes.

Worst Average Improvement from Moto 1 to Moto 2 (Percentage Difference)

Rank	Rider	Moto 1 Average	Moto 2 Average	% Difference
1	James Stewart	7.70	12.97	68.50%
2	Josh Grant	8.82	14.17	60.66%
3	Dylan Ferrandis	4.06	6.06	49.23%
4	Sebastien Tortelli	5.98	8.49	41.96%
5	Brian Swink	10.42	14.19	36.22%
6	Matthew Goerke	16.74	22.05	31.67%
7	Jeremy McGrath	4.27	5.38	25.94%
8	Davi Millsaps	9.81	12.32	25.58%
9	Paul Carpenter	16.52	20.70	25.32%
10	Travis Preston	9.11	11.11	21.96%

With the percentage differences we can see a different picture.
Stewart leads the way here which isn’t too surprising.
What is interesting here is that we have a combo of champions, race winners and career 10-20^th place riders.
One thing that sticks out to me with Ferrandis here is that while a 49% change is significant, Ferrandis’ 6.06 Moto 2 average is still 14^th best all-time since 1985 (min 30 starts).

Closest Average Finishes between Moto 1 and Moto 2

For simplicity, for these I made all the numbers here positive to show the difference.

Rank	Rider	Moto 1 Average	Moto 2 Average	Difference
1	Nicholas Wey	13.83	13.85	0.02
	Jake Weimer	11.64	11.66	0.02
3	Alex Ray	28.74	28.77	0.03
	John Dowd	9.71	9.74	0.03
5	Austin Howell	25.15	25.09	0.06
6	Mike Alessi	7.86	7.77	0.09
	Richard Taylor	21.08	21.17	0.09
8	Vince Friese	23.03	23.14	0.11
	Jean-Sebastien Roy	16.80	16.69	0.11
10	David Vuillemin	9.07	9.20	0.14

The consistency here is pretty insane, especially for Nick Wey and John Dowd. Nick Wey has 124 career starts and John Dowd has 143.
How about A-Ray’s consistency!
Surprised to see Mike Alessi this consistent, would have thought he would have been more inconsistent moto to moto.

Closest Average Finishes between Moto 1 and Moto 2 (% Difference)

For simplicity, for these I made all the percentages here positive to show the difference.

Rank	Rider	Moto 1 Average	Moto 2 Average	% Difference
1	Alex Ray	28.74	28.77	0.09%
2	Nicholas Wey	13.83	13.85	0.12%
3	Jake Weimer	11.64	11.66	0.20%
4	Austin Howell	25.15	25.09	0.23%
5	John Dowd	9.71	9.74	0.30%
6	Richard Taylor	21.08	21.17	0.43%
7	Vince Friese	23.03	23.14	0.48%
8	Jean-Sebastien Roy	16.80	16.69	0.67%
9	Kevin Crine	21.10	21.31	1.02%
10	Ben LaMay	20.21	20.42	1.02%

A-Ray!
Ben Lamay is another rider with over 100 starts – 117 to be exact.

Notable Moto Win Stats

Both Kevin Windham and Mike LaRocco won 60% of their moto wins in Moto 1 and 40% in Moto 2.
- Windham had 15 wins in Moto 1 and 10 in Moto 2. LaRocco had 12 wins in Moto 1 and 8 in Moto 2
In James Stewart’s 41 career moto wins, 58.54% (24) were in Moto 1 and 41.46% (17) were in moto 2.
Ricky Carmichael’s split was 45.39% (64) in Moto 1 and 54.61% (77) in Moto 2.
Jeremy McGrath’s split was 43.75% (14) in Moto 1 and 56.25% (18) in Moto 2.
Eli Tomac’s split is 42.65% (29) in Moto 1 and 57.35% (39) in Moto 2. Not surprised to see this for Tomac, he has always seems stronger in Moto 2.

Career Moto Averages for 2024 Riders

For the riders in the 2024 450 Class Championship, here are there Moto averages even if they don’t have 30 career moto starts in each moto. Riders are listed as of Championship points order through round 7. Those with 0 points are listed alphabetically.

Rider	2024 Points	Moto 1 Starts	Moto 1 Avg	Moto 2 Starts	Moto 2 Avg
Chase Sexton	310	46	3.80	46	3.30
Hunter Lawrence	297	7	1.86	7	3.00
Justin Cooper	249	7	4.14	7	5.00
Aaron Plessinger	239	47	9.38	44	8.86
Jason Anderson	221	70	7.70	67	7.54
Jett Lawrence	210	16	2.50	16	1.38
Dylan Ferrandis	204	32	4.06	32	6.06
Malcolm Stewart	185	30	13.30	30	13.53
Justin Barcia	148	109	7.78	109	6.95
Christian Craig	136	74	12.04	73	11.36
Phil Nicoletti	116	79	13.44	77	13.90
Fredrik Noren	111	127	15.41	127	15.59
Harri Kullas	99	8	10.63	8	11.88
Marshal Weltin	94	23	19.35	22	15.73
Grant Harlan	92	34	18.32	34	16.38
Shane McElrath	80	22	15.64	22	13.95
Romain Pape	61	18	22.78	18	17.06
Cullin Park	54	13	20.31	13	24.38
Derek Kelley	51	12	24.67	10	26.90
Garrett Marchbanks	50	24	12.92	23	12.61
Kyle Webster	45	2	13.50	2	8.00
Kyle Chisholm	41	89	17.76	88	16.32
Justin Hill	35	14	13.64	12	15.33
Anthony Rodriguez	34	12	24.67	13	23.31
Alvin Ostlund	20	2	14.50	2	20.50
Jerry Robin	18	33	27.06	31	29.58
Broc Tickle	17	62	10.44	62	11.61
Dean Wilson	17	47	11.36	46	9.98
Lorenzo Locurcio	16	32	20.34	30	18.37
Gert Krestinov	15	4	18.75	4	23.00
Henry Miller	13	47	17.06	47	19.57
Jeremy Hand	11	43	21.95	43	22.86
Scotty Verhaeghe	9	7	24.71	7	25.14
James Harrington	8	5	26.20	6	26.33
Max Miller	8	16	25.94	16	24.06
Bryce Shelly	5	11	22.00	11	25.27
Trevin Nelson	5	3	26.00	3	25.00
Ryder Floyd	4	10	24.20	10	30.10
Tristan Lane	3	29	27.90	29	24.93
Jake Masterpool	1	24	20.33	22	23.64
Ayden Shive	0	7	30.71	6	28.17
Brad Todd	0	0	#DIV/0!	1	32.00
Brad West	0	2	32.50	2	25.50
Bryton Carroll	0	15	29.13	16	35.06
Bryce Hammond	0	4	27.00	6	24.33
Cade Clason	0	26	24.04	26	24.92
Chandler Baker	0	7	28.00	6	28.17
CJ Tucker	0	1	35.00	1	32.00
Colton Eigenmann	0	4	36.50	4	34.75
Dawson Draycott	0	5	35.80	4	30.00
Dayton Briggs	0	1	33.00	1	34.00
Gage Stine	0	2	36.50	2	36.00
Izaih Clark	0	8	25.63	7	25.29
Jace Kessler	0	22	26.27	20	25.15
Jason Brooks	0	22	24.32	22	28.95
Jeffrey Walker	0	32	30.25	29	30.59
Jeremy Smith	0	53	28.98	53	27.66
Joel Wightman	0	1	35.00	1	33.00
Josh Boaz	0	4	33.25	3	33.67
Josh Mosiman	0	23	24.91	23	24.04
Joseph Tait	0	1	33.00	1	34.00
Justin Cokinos	0	5	29.60	5	27.20
Justin Rodbell	0	40	21.25	40	20.73
Kevin Moranz	0	17	25.24	17	23.18
Kile Epperson	0	1	33.00	1	33.00
Luca Marsalisi	0	12	23.33	12	23.33
Luke Kalaitzian	0	1	34.00	1	28.00
Matthew Burkeen	0	13	34.85	13	33.85
Mitchell Zaremba	0	1	34.00	1	37.00
Robbie Wageman	0	8	20.88	9	23.78
Scott Meshey	0	37	28.00	34	30.00
Sebastian Balbuena	0	5	29.60	5	31.20
Takumu Yokosawa	0	1	33.00	1	32.00
Tristan Purdon	0	3	25.33	3	23.33
Tyler Stepek	0	33	26.76	31	28.16
Vincent Luhovey	0	12	27.50	12	28.17
Zac Watson	0	1	34.00	1	30.00
Zack Williams	0	32	25.69	34	24.59