Racing in the month of January is complete and I’ll quote one of the more popular moto journalists Jason Weigandt, “Dude….are we looking at the Tomac/Roczen season battling for the supercross title we were supposed to get about 4 years ago?”. While tonight was the Ken Roczen show, there are early signs that we’re going to be watching another 13 rounds of Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac battling relentlessly for that coveted #1 plate.
Back to Glendale and Ken Roczen, he takes the Stat of the Night award with 38 of 39 laps led. Zach Osborne led the other lap, but he had a rough night sampling dirt on multiple occasions and finishing with a -21 position change on the evening. In stark contrast to Osborne’s negative position changes, Ken Roczen didn’t require position changes (+2) after nailing 2 of the 3 holeshots en route to winning all three main events. Eli Tomac did his best to make it interesting, but a poor start in the 3rd main event resulted in +9 position changes and ruined any chances of him contesting for the top spot on the night. From the perspective of fans, the restart of the third main event was a let down as it was shaping up to be a great battle for podium positions. What could have been with Jason Anderson in the lead and Roczen following Tomac midfield early on, but something tells me we’ll be seeing more Roczen v Tomac battles this season.
* Points below are based on allocating standard points (26, 23, 21…) to each of the triple crown main events. Think of this as a scenario to see how the championship points would change if we altered the points structure for each of the three main events. Got ideas for allocating points differently for the triple crown main events, drop me your ideas.
Additionally, the stats below are the totals and averages of the combined 3 triple crown main events. While the individual main event breakdowns are interesting, it’s a lot of numbers to consume.
As always, drop me a line on Twitter or Instagram @3lapsdown with any questions or just to bench race. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
250 CLASS ADVANCED ANALYTICS
STAT OF THE RACE
-17 Position Change. This was a night that got away from Justin Cooper. He was in 8th position after the first lap of the first main event when he went down by the mechanics area. After having trouble starting the bike, he proceeded to fall again while charging back to the front,. He ultimately finished in 17th position after dropping -9 positions. It looked like his luck had change in the second main event when he pulled the holeshot and led the first lap. Then disaster struck again and he was on the ground. With a 9th place finish that was another -8 positions making a total of -17 positions dropped. He did start rebuilding momentum in the third and final main event of the evening when he led the race wire-to-wire and set the fastest lap of the main. The good news for Justin is he still leads the series heading into the next round in Oakland.
ROOKIE HIGHLIGHT
While he’s likely not happy with his third main event, Derek Drake showed why he belongs on the Troy Lee Designs Red Bull KTM factory team after leading 4 laps of the second main event. Not only did he lead laps, but he held his own against reigning champ Dylan Ferrandis and title contender Austin Forkner. A great step forward for a promising prospect.
PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Robbie Wageman of the Nuclear Blast Records Rockwell Yamaha team had a season best 12th place after qualifying a season best 12th. He’s now made it into all 4 rounds and is right in the mix for top privateer honors with Carson Brown and Killian Auberson (categorizing Jacob Hayes as Factory!?).
WEEK 3 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: It’s hard to give out a Fader or Dud award when you’re talking about the fastest supercross riders in the world. I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list though the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger.
SHAKER
Mitchell Oldenburg is this weeks Shaker (and he nailed top points in PulpMX Fantasy). Oldenburg moved forward in each of the three main events for a +9 in Position Changes which ultimately netted him a 6th overall on the night. Anyone that’s followed the sport the past couple years knows that Oldenburg seems to have a penchant to sample dirt, but this weekend that was not the case.
STUD
While Austin Forkner is the obvious choice, I’m going with Jacob Hayes. Riding for the Gas Monkey Energy team, Jacob Hayes came into the season a bit behind the eight ball after an injury but he’s been building his race pace each week. He averaged a 5.3 1st Lap and Finish Position this week and was surrounded by factory talent on the track. Currently 7th in the championship, you have to wonder if this is the beginning of a run to break into the top 5!?
FADER
I genuinely dislike handing out the Fader and Dud awards cause these guys are all incredibly talented. Alas, this weeks Fader award goes to Martin Castelo of the JMC Motorsports Racing FLY Husqvarna team. Castelo had great starts in both the second and third main events, but dropped -9 and -12 positions in each. He ultimately finished 13th place. I have wonder if he’ll start to build comfort and confidence with more of these great starts!?
DUD
Logan Karnow and Ludovic Macler share the honor this week with 22/20/20 and 21/21/21 finishes after 22/17/17 and 21/16/20 starts. I don’t know much about either of these riders, but Karnow had a great week in Anaheim a week ago and Macler has made 3 mains this year.
450 CLASS ADVANCED ANALYTICS
STAT OF THE RACE
If we had an unforced error stat, I’d be highlighting the woulda coulda and shoulda of Adam Cianciarulo’s evening (btw, great to hear he’s okay and will be back next weekend). Unfortunately, we don’t (yet) have those stats in our sport. As a result, I’m giving the nod to Ken Roczen’s Avg 1st Lap Position across all 3 main events. His 1.7 average was 3x better than Jason Anderson who had the 2nd best Avg 1st Lap Position of 5.0. It’s going to be very difficult to beat Roczen if he continues to nail 50% of the holeshots and have a 1.7 1st Lap Position!
PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Only 27 total riders have qualified for a main event this year. The 450 class is stacked with champions and just making the mains is a major feat and Ryan Breece has now done so at 2 of 4 rounds and sits 20th in points. Following last nights race in Glendale, Ryan overtakes his teammate Kyle Cunningham for top honors inside the HEP Motorsports Suzuki team.
WEEK 3 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: It’s hard to give out a Fader or Dud award when you’re talking about the fastest supercross riders in the world. I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list though the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger.
SHAKER
Justin Brayton takes the Shaker honors this week. With a 12.7 Avg 1st Lap Position and +15 position changes and an Avg Finish Position of 7.7, he worked very hard for 6th overall this week (and many PulpMX Fantasy owners rejoiced after concerns about his -2 handicap).
STUD
Ken Roczen takes the honors. With the exception of qualifying 3rd, Roczen dominated holeshots, Avg 1st Lap Position, Race +/-, Laps Led, Avg Finish, and ultimately took home 26 points and maintains ownership of the red plate.
FADER
Vince Friese takes the honors. Vince dropped back in each of the three main events, – 3, -4, and -4. Popular belief is that Friese excels in these races given his great starts. However, over his career, he’s averaged a 14.3 Finish Position in triple crown main events vs. a 12.3 at regular main events. This weekend in Glendale was no different as he finished 14th on the night.
DUD
Zach Osborne takes the Dud (or maybe we should call this one the King of Dirt Sampling) honors this week. He was leading the first main event when he slid the front tire, almost got run over by eventual winner Ken Roczen, and ended up dropping -21 positions. In the final main event of the night, he was on the ground in the first turn before the red flag and ended up disqualified for leaving the race track (I believe to go to the medics trailer) and returning to the race track. This was a night to forget for the veteran, another addition to a trying season that started with the flu at round 1.
