We’ve got a championship battle on our hands with 3 riders separated by a mere 9 points after 6 of 17 rounds of racing. San Diego provided some great racing and most importantly our 4th winner of the year, Cooper Webb. As we head to the east coast for the next round, there’s a lot of bench racing to be done. Here’s some fuel for your bench racing fires.
A week ago, I threw out a stat that since 2000, the first rider with 3 wins goes on to win the championship 85% of the time (correction, it’s 80%. Thanks to a few followers that saw I had 2017 calculated incorrectly). Here’s another… 77% of supercross champions (since 1977) had the most wins in the season and 95% of champions were ranked 2nd or above in wins.
Winning races wins championships.
Consistent podiums does not win championships. Take the legendary career of Chad Reed who’s far and away the all-time podium leader. In 17 years, he had the most wins in a season on 3 different occasions (2003, 2004, 2008) and won the championship in 2 of those years (2004, 2008). The exception was 2003 when Ricky Carmichael had 7 wins and Reed had 8 wins. That’s one of only ten exceptions over the last 43 years of supercross championships.
Need further evidence consistent podiums don’t win championships!? Chad Reed finished 2nd or 3rd in wins in four different years (2005, 2006, 2007, 2009). In these four years, he podiumed an unprecedented 59 times, an average of 15 times a year! In each of these seasons he finished 2nd overall.
Winning races wins championships. So who do you have getting 3 wins first and who’s going to win the most races this year!? If history is any indicator, it’s likely they’ll be your 2020 supercross champion.
As always, drop me a line on Twitter or Instagram @3lapsdown with any questions or just to bench race. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
250SX ADVANCED ANALYTICS
STAT OF THE RACE
4. Michael Mosiman led 4 laps en route to a 4th place finish. This is the 2nd main event he’s led laps in his promising 3 year career (Denver 2019, 6 laps was the other time). His best lap time was right there with podium riders in San Diego and now it’s a matter of maintaining that pace for 15 minutes. Honorable mention to qualifying position. With the exception of Carson Brown who qualified 16th, the top 10 main event finishers all qualified in the top 10.
PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
I was going to wait till the Seattle round to shine the spotlight on Carson Brown of the JMC Motorsports Racing Husqvarna team given he’s from Washington state, but he’s earned this spotlight with a career best 8th place finish. He had a good holeshot and moved forward +3 positions on the night. While he’s not running the pace of the podium finishers, he’s consistently in the second tier and making strides in his sophomore year. #PNW
WEEK 3 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: It’s hard to give out a Fader or Dud award when you’re talking about the fastest supercross riders in the world. I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list though the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger.
SHAKER
Derek Drake. Again. Last week he took these honors and he does so again this week. It’s great to see the talented Troy Lee Designs Red Bull KTM rookie passing his way through the pack, but I’d much rather see him get a start and more experience running towards the front of the pack as his lap times indicate he can do.
STUD
The competition should be concerned as Dylan Ferrandis is improving his one weakness, starts. He’s typically buried in the pack after poor starts, but this week he was 3rd on the 1st lap and waited patiently for an opportunity to pass Austin Forkner on his way to his 2nd consecutive win.
FADER
Aaron Tanti started in 9th position and dropped back to 14th. Tough to tell from watching the race, but looks like he likely fell on lap 8. Regardless, fantasy players rejoiced as he stayed in double points.
DUD
Lorenzo Camporese of Italy continues to put it into the main event, but starting 21st and finishing in 21st earns the Dud award.
450SX ADVANCED ANALYTICS
STAT OF THE RACE
A lot will be said and written about Cooper Webb’s ride, but it’s Blake Baggett’s holeshot and podium finish that deserve Stat of the Race. Baggett has shown the speed in qualifying and heat races, but simply hasn’t had a standout main event in 2020. That changed in San Diego. Can he build on this momentum and get a win in 2020!?
PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Tyler Bowers continues to put his Triggr RAK Racing AHM Factory Services Kawasaki into main event after main event against the best in the world. Another 16th place in San Diego to match sitting 16th in the season standings.
WEEK 3 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: It’s hard to give out a Fader or Dud award when you’re talking about the fastest supercross riders in the world. I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list though the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger.
SHAKER
Eli Tomac added another +6 position changes to his season leading total. Eli continues to make life difficult for himself. Poor starts in both his heat race and the main event created uphill battles, including a multi lap battle with Justin “Bam Bam” Barcia.
STUD
Cooper Webb took his 11th place gate position and turned it into 2nd position on the 1st lap and ultimately a win. Cooper Webb’s stellar race craft has been on display 2 weeks in a row and he’s cut the points lead in half during that span.
FADER
Aaron Plessinger takes the award, but we all saw the crash early, so this award is simply a chance to highlight that Aaron’s showing signs of how he won multiple championships in the 250’s. He’s gotten a few holeshots and his best lap times are inching closer and closer to the elite riders. This bolds well for the beginning of the east coast rounds.
DUD
What bike is Jason Clermont riding?
