2020 Arlington Advanced Analytics

The Arlington round played a pivotal role in the 2019 season and it looks eerily the case again in 2020. In 2019, Ken Roczen, Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac, and Marvin Musquin entered Arlington separated by a mere 2 points. In Arlington, Eli Tomac led until a crash on lap 7. He ended up finishing 12th, never gaining any positions back in one of his more puzzling rides. On the other hand, Cooper Webb started in 7th and made +6 position changes, passing Marvin Musquin and Ken Roczen en route to winning by 0.028 seconds. It was the defining moment of the season as Webb went on to win the championship down the stretch.

Arlington likely just provided one of, if not THE defining moment, of the 2020 season. Adam Cianciarulo broke his collarbone and is likely out for a few weeks. Cooper Webb crashed hard and ended his night on the same dragons back as Cianciarulo. Cnversely, Eli Tomac took care of what he didn’t in 2019. He’s now the first rider to take back-to-back wins and he did so coming through the pack in 2 out of 3 main events. This included passing his primary title contender in the final main event. While Ken Roczen is right there, the smile on Eli Tomac’s face the last few weeks seems to indicate that we’re in for some 2017 beast mode.

Did you know the first rider to 4 wins has won the championship 80% of the time since 2000 (and 79% since 1977). The exceptions since 2000 are Ryan Villopoto in 2010, James Stewart in 2014, and Eli Tomac in both 2017 and 2018. Eli Tomac accounts for 2 of the 9 times that a rider hasn’t won the championship after being the first to 4 wins. Will he break his own streak?

As always, drop me a line on Twitter or Instagram @3lapsdown with any questions or just to bench race. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

250SX ADVANCED ANALYTICS

STAT OF THE RACE
2. Chase Sexton’s average 1st lap position. The GEICO Honda’s have been upfront on the starts a lot this season and for Chase Sexton, this translated into 15 laps led, a win, and co-owner of the leaders red plate leaving Arlington

ROOKIE SPOTLIGHT
Jalek Swoll, Rockstar Husky. After not making the main event in his inaugural attempt, Jalek qualified 10th in Arlington and went on to finish 9th. Not bad after a shaky start to the season. This will likely be an interesting battle with Jo Shimoda and Derek Drake (west coast) for rookie of the year honors.

PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Joey Crown, Club MX Yamaha. He’s been on fire so far this season with an 8th last weekend and a 7th this weekend. From the first two races this season, Joey Crown is making a bid to be 2019 version of Brandon Hartranft or Cameron McAdoo and land a factory ride for next season.

SEGMENT TIME KEY TAKEAWAY
Across all segments and all 3 main events, Chase Sexton averaged the lowest times in all 3 major segments. Understandable why he earned the “Stud” award below. Also notable that McElrath had a sub-par average in the Dragon’s Back segment in main event 1 (on lap 1) while RJ Hampshire seemed to struggle across the board in main event 2.

WEEK 7 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list. The Fader and Dud awards are tough to hand out, but the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger. While his position change stats aren’t great, he’s gotten made up for it with starts.

SHAKER
Garrett Marchbanks, Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki. Garrett has been the shining light for the team on the east coast given Jordon Smith’s struggles in the sand last week and crashes this week. But an average 1st lap position of 10.5 is not going to provide podium opportunities.

STUD
Chase Sexton, GEICO Honda. Sexton qualified 2nd, had a 2.0 average 1st lap position, and led the most laps (15) on the night to take the win. He’s positioned well to defend his 2019 title though Shane McElrath, Jeremy Martin, and RJ Hampshire are still very much in the hunt.

FADER
Jordon Smith, Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki. Not as much faded but more crashes. Jordon was on the ground a LOT on Saturday night and that translated into -17 position changes over the 3 main events. Ouch.

Note: Points here are awarded for each main event position to demonstrate a different approach for Triple Crown races.

450SX ADVANCED ANALYTICS

STAT OF THE RACE
45.90. Martin Davalos’ fastest lap time in Main Event 1 which put him 3rd overall and just 0.09 off of Ken Roczen’s fastest lap in that same main event. Martin qualified 3rd on the day and while he had some crashes, he continued to show speed that warrants better finishes.

PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Ryan Breece, HEP Suzuki. Ryan qualified 25th fastest but made it into the night show in the Last Chance Qualifier. His average first lap position of 14.7 was inline with his average finish of 14.7 for a season best 14th place overall. Ryan continues to make progress, sitting 19th in the standings right behind veteran Kyle Chisholm.

SEGMENT TIME KEY TAKEAWAY
Eli Tomac was only 5th fastest in the Dragon’s Back segment but that was primarily due to the first lap of main event 1 which was over 3 seconds slower than his average. He was Top 2 in the other segments across all main events. Other notables include Jason Anderson only 7th in the Whoops segment while Ken Roczen was fastest in the Whoops segment across all main events.

SHAKER
Justin Hill, Smartop Motoconcepts Bullfrog Spas Honda. Justin qualified 1st on the day and with the exception of a fall in main event 3 he was a contender in the Top 5 all day. It’s been a long road, but he’s starting to live up to the expectations placed upon him last year as a rookie. Who’s got him for a podium this year?

STUD
Eli Tomac, Monster Energy Kawasaki. Eli is the first to take back-to-back wins and has solidified himself as the lead dog in what now appears to be a 2 rider championship battle.

FADER
Blake Baggett, Rocky Mountain ATV/MC KTM. Blake is better than a 10th in Arlington and 11th in the season standings. Not unlike Zach Osborne, Blake seems to have some bad luck when he’s in good position. His best lap times are consistently on par with the title contenders, but rarely does his race craft afford him a chance to compete.

Dud
Ronnie Stewart, Privateer. I’m not a big fan of this ‘award’ but Ronnie’s starts weren’t great this weekend. But props to him on making the main event and grabbing a few points.

Note: Points here are awarded for each main event position to demonstrate a different approach for Triple Crown races.