Wow, that was some great racing in Atlanta. During the heat races I tweeted that the track was shaping up to be one lined and there were only a few spots to make a pass. Most importantly, I highlighted that the track would likely favor 1st lap leaders.
Passing is going to be tough tonight. Three 180 degree turns but one is at the end of the split lane. Thinking we’ll see two wire-to-wire races for the 1st lap leaders.
— Clinton Fowler (@3lapsdown) February 29, 2020
At the end of the night, Ken Roczen led wire-to-wire to win the 450 main event and Chase Sexton started 2nd, made one pass, and won the 250 main event. The tight lap times and a track that deteriorated rapidly throughout each race made getting a great holeshot and having good first lap position critical. It’s why we saw riders like Martin Davalos and Vince Friese in the Top 5 for over half of the race. Not to take anything away from their great rides, but the track gave a significant advantage to the riders that got a great holeshot and put themselves in good position on the first lap.
While Justin Barcia, Cooper Webb, and Eli Tomac made it through the pack, the winners tonight got out into clean air and that was the difference. For concrete evidence, look at the very tight average segment times for each class below. The variance between the top 10 in each segment is much smaller than in other races this year. Instead of the differences being in multiple tenths of seconds it’s multiple hundredths of seconds.
It’s becoming a bit of a routine to use the last paragraph of this opening to introduce a cool stat and this week is no different. Over the years, Ricky Carmichael has been quoted as saying the series starts in Daytona. Based on the numbers, I think what he meant to say is that the series is over after Daytona.
Since 1990, the leader after Daytona has won the championship 90% of the time! There’s only 3 times in the last 30 years that the leader after Daytona has not won the championship. It happened in 1990, 1992, and 2009. In 1990, Jeff Matiasevich was leading the series by 6 points over Larry Ward in 2nd and 9 points over Jeff Stanton in 3rd. Stanton went on to win the championship. In 1992, Damon Bradshaw was leading the series by 26 points over Jeff Stanton in 2nd. Stanton went on to win the championship. In 2009, Chad Reed was leading the series by 11 points over James Stewart. Stewart went on to win the championship.
With a tie for the red plate going into Daytona, whoever finished better between Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen is most likely your 2020 450 supercross champion.
Stay tuned to twitter and Instagram (@3lapsdown) this week as I’ll have a few more fun Daytona stats for you along with a mid-season report here on PulpMX.com. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
250SX ADVANCED ANALYTICS
STAT OF THE RACE
+7. Jo Shimoda (GEICO Honda) moved forward +7 positions to take his first Top 5 in just his 3rd race. While his best lap time wasn’t as strong as the fastest 5 or 6 riders in the main event, he was able to put together consistent laps the whole race. On a track that got very rough and rutted, he showed skill and strength to move forward. It’ll be very interesting to see how he does next week in Daytona.
ROOKIE SPOTLIGHT
Pierce Brown (Troy Lee Designs Red Bull KTM) made his debut supercross race and did well in qualifying (4th) as well as his heat race (3rd). Unfortunately, in the main event on Lap 3, he fell in segment 2 (over/under and start straight), and dropped back to 22nd position and he ultimately finished 17th. Based on his lap times though, the future is bright for Pierce.
PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Enzo Lopes (ClubMX Yamaha) didn’t get a great holeshot in the main event, sitting in 11th position after the first lap, but charged forward with a +5 position change to finish a career best 6th. With Joey Crown breaking his collarbone on press day, Enzo stepped up nicely for the ClubMX Yamaha team.
SEGMENT TIME KEY TAKEAWAY
The story amongst the top three riders was no one section separated them. There’s a very similar story for the 450’s. No wonder the racing was tight and we saw a lot of bar-to-bar action. There’s a lot of talk about track design and I think after this race the amount that the surface breaks down may be one of the more important factors to consider in creating great racing.
WEEK 7 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list. The Fader and Dud awards are tough to hand out, but the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger. While his position change stats aren’t great, he’s gotten made up for it with starts.
SHAKER
Jo Shimoda (GEICO Honda). See Stat of the Race above.
STUD
Chase Sexton (GEICO Honda). While there’s still a lot of racing left in the 250 east series, with this victory, Chase put +5 points between him and Shane McElrath, his primary title contender. That said, it’ll be interesting to watch the battle between Chase and RJ Hampshire closely. They’ve now traded paint in back-to-back weekends and in a short series the last thing you want to do is add risk with a rivalry.
FADER
Jeremy Martin (GEICO Honda). Once again, this is less about a fade and more about crashing. Jeremy Martin was in 4th position for the first 11 laps of the main event and unfortunately landed on an errant tuff block causing him to go over-the-bars. For a guy that just came back from a back injury, that was not the type of hard crash you want to see. Hope he’s okay and ready to go for Daytona.
DUD
Jimmy DeCotis (JGRMX Suzuki). I’m a New England native and a big fan of Jimmmmmyy D, but he didn’t have the best of nights. From a heat race crash to just making it into the main event via 4th place in the LCQ and ultimately finishing 13th in the main event, it wasn’t pretty. The good news is that he was in the main event and finished. Hopefully this parts the black clouds over the JGRMX camp.
450SX ADVANCED ANALYTICS
STAT OF THE RACE
It was too difficult to select one stat so I’m taking a podium strategy and have selected three.
+9. Justin Barcia (Monster Energy Yamaha). It was another spectacular ride from Justin Barcia in Atlanta. Once again, he got a horrendous start and rounded the first lap in 11th position. He then charged relentlessly to the front of the pack, passing all but one of his primary competitors for the title, including a prototypical Bam-Bam duel with both Jason Anderson and Eli Tomac.
2nd, 3rd, and 4th. At the 10 minute mark of the main event, Martin Davalos (Team Tedder), Justin Hill (Motoconcepts Honda), and Vince Friese (Motoconcepts Honda) were in second, third, and fourth place. I’m certain that not one person would’ve guess that running order that deep into a main event back in December. But props to all three of these riders for a great performance even with the late race lost positions that won’t show just how good they rode.
7th. Eli Tomac’s first lap position was 7th place and his holeshot position was more like 11-12th. It was not a pretty start and it’s a snowball effect for having to go bar-to-bar with Justin Barcia, crash making an aggressive pass on Blake Baggett, and generally being more in harms way throughout the main event. But his +3 position change, which masks that he passed from 14th to 4th, made for a great viewing experience!
PRIVATEER SPOTLIGHT
Benny Bloss (Cycle Trader Yamaha) got a season high 13th place finish. While it’s not back to his career best 8th in 2018, it’s progress in a season that’s had its challenges. Let’s hope this is the start of some consistent finishes for this weeks top privateer.
SEGMENT TIME KEY TAKEAWAY
While the average segment times are much tighter than your typical race, take a look at the Whoops segment times. The top 4 in those times are your top 4 in the results. Time and time again, it’s the Whoops segment that separates the best of the best.
WEEK 7 SHAKER & STUDS, FADERS & DUDS
Disclaimer: I’ve a ton of respect for everyone on the entry list. The Fader and Dud awards are tough to hand out, but the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story. Don’t shoot the messenger. While his position change stats aren’t great, he’s gotten made up for it with starts.
SHAKER
Lots of riders moved forward in the main event including Malcolm Stewart (Motoconcepts Honda), Aaron Plessinger (Monster Energy Yamaha), and Cooper Webb (Red Bull KTM), but this one has to go to Justin Barcia. Unfortunately for Justin, this is becoming a trademark of his racecraft. He gets a poor start and charges through the pack. Wonder what he could do with a holeshot!?
STUD
Ken Roczen (Honda HRC, Red Bull). He qualified 2nd, led every lap of his heat race, got first gate pick, took the holeshot and went on to lead all 25 laps in the main event for 26 points and a share of the series leader red plate. He was a stud in Atlanta.
FADER
Justin Brayton (Honda HRC). He got a pretty good holeshot and sat in 8th position at the end of the first lap, but got shuffled back 4 positions in the 2nd half of the race. Looking at Brayton’s lap times, starting at lap 12 he dropped 3% when his average lap times went from56.7 to 58.5. Then again at lap 22 he dropped another 3% to 60.2 average lap times for the rest of the race. I imagine that following a rough weekend in Arlington, he wasn’t 100% this weekend.
