With a break in the action, let’s take a look back at the 250 West season so far. Be sure to check out the 450 Mid Season report as well as the 250 East Mid Season report also. And yes, I’m being optimistic calling these mid-season reports. The world around us is changing rapidly and it’s tough to imagine we’ll see another supercross race till 2021.
With the recently announced return to racing, we figured it made good sense to re-post these Mid-Season Analytics to get you back up to speed for when the gate drops resume.
Dylan Ferrandis is the Eli Tomac of the 250 class. The similarities in how they are leading their respective classes is near identical. They both have no holeshots and a poor average first lap position, a perfect Race +/-, and sit at the top or very close in total position changes. Ironically, their primary competitors, Austin Forkner and Ken Roczen, also have similar stats. Forkner and Roczen lead in gate pick, holeshots, and average first lap position but have poor Race +/-.
The important difference between the 450 and 250 West series is that Justin Cooper is a viable championship contender sitting 2nd overall whereas Cooper Webb sits in a distant 3rd and is now down -29 points.
I hope you enjoy the mid-season update and as always, drop me a line on Twitter or Instagram @3lapsdown with any questions.
3 KEY STATS OF THE SEASON, SO FAR…
1. FIRST LAP POSITION
Unless your name is Dylan Ferrandis, the winners of the race have been in the Top 2 at the end of the first lap. On the other hand, Dylan Ferrandis has been able to come through the pack after poor starts and win races.
With 6 races completed, Dylan Ferrandis has won 3 races, Austin Forkner has won 2 races, and Justin Cooper has won 1 race. Forkner and Cooper have each averaged 2nd position on the first lap in their wins. Dylan Ferrandis has averaged 4th position on the first lap in the races he has won and 11th position on the first lap when he’s not won!
2. RACE +/-
This metric is arguably the best for measuring racecraft. A rider is given +1 if their finish position is better than their first lap position. A rider gets -1 if their finish position is worse than their first lap position.
8 of the Top 10 riders have a positive Race +/- while only 5 riders in 11-20th season standings have a positive Race +/-. Dylan Ferrandis has a perfect +6 Race +/- while Justin Cooper has a +4 and Austin Forkner a +2. Coopers one race with a negative Race +/- cost him 7 points to Ferrandis. Forkner’s two races with a negative Race +/- cost him 23 points to Ferrandis.
While Ferrandis has made mistakes, crashing just after the first turn in St. Louis being the biggest, he’s been able to move forward in every race and minimize the damage.
3. WHOOPS SPEED
With the exception of St Louis and one segment at the second round in Anaheim, Dylan Ferrandis has been the fastest in the whoops. That’s 5 of 8 segments where he’s topped his competition. Most importantly, Dylan Ferrandis has used his whoops speed to recover from poor holeshots and first lap position to take the most wins on the season and lead the series.
Of particular concern looking at whoops segment rank is that Justin Cooper has been outside the Top 3 in each of the last 4 rounds. He started the year strong in results and that was backed with whoops segment ranks of 2nd and 1st. Since then, he’s averaged 5th in the whoops segments. If he’s to contend for a title, this will be a critical piece to strengthen.
Finally, interesting to see Christian Craig amongst the title contenders in whoops speed. Whoops have been a strong point throughout his career though crashing and injuries have never afforded him a chance to truly contend.
