After two consecutive mud races in San Francisco and San Diego, we get to the question of who is the best mud rider?
When we think of mud races, we typically think of A1 2005 or Daytona 2008 as the perfect examples of “mudders.” However, I looked at a lot of different races since 2003 that might not be as extreme as A1 2005 or Daytona 2008. Some of these could maybe be better considered “mixed conditions.”
Here is the list of races I am including since 2003 (going back to 2003 for the laps data):
| 2005 Anaheim 1 | 2012 Daytona |
| 2005 Seattle | 2016 Las Vegas |
| 2006 San Francisco | 2018 Seattle |
| 2006 Seattle | 2019 Anaheim 1 |
| 2008 Anaheim 1 | 2019 San Diego |
| 2008 San Francisco | 2020 Salt Lake City 3 |
| 2008 Daytona | 2021 Atlanta 1 |
| 2009 Anaheim 3 | 2023 East Rutherford |
| 2010 Salt Lake City | 2024 San Francisco |
| 2011 San Diego | 2024 San Diego |
All data is up to date through the first three rounds of 2024.
Best Average Finish in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)
| Rank | Rider | Starts | Average Mud Race Finish |
| 1 | James Stewart | 8 | 1.88 |
| 2 | Eli Tomac | 9 | 2.56 |
| 3 | Ricky Carmichael | 4 | 2.75 |
| 4 | Chase Sexton | 4 | 3.75 |
| 5 | Ryan Dungey | 4 | 4.25 |
| 6 | Kevin Windham | 10 | 5.00 |
| 7 | Cooper Webb | 8 | 5.13 |
| 8 | Chad Reed | 14 | 5.57 |
| 9 | Dylan Ferrandis | 3 | 5.67 |
| 10 | Davi Millsaps | 8 | 5.75 |
| 11 | Aaron Plessinger | 6 | 5.83 |
| 12 | Mike LaRocco | 3 | 6.00 |
| 13 | Jason Anderson | 8 | 6.75 |
| 14 | Andrew Short | 6 | 7.33 |
| 15 | Marvin Musquin | 6 | 7.50 |
| 16 | Ken Roczen | 8 | 7.75 |
| 17 | Travis Preston | 4 | 8.00 |
| 18 | Jacob Marsack | 4 | 8.25 |
| 19 | Tyler Evans | 3 | 8.67 |
| – | Shane McElrath | 3 | 8.67 |
| 21 | Justin Barcia | 8 | 9.00 |
| – | Michael Byrne | 5 | 9.00 |
| 23 | Blake Baggett | 5 | 9.20 |
| 24 | Dean Wilson | 7 | 9.57 |
| 25 | Broc Tickle | 5 | 9.80 |
- I would not have thought Stew would have had the top average finish, however, he was very successful in his mud races with an average under 2.00
- Tomac second and Carmichael third isn’t too surprising
- For the most part, the top riders are still the top riders when it’s a mud race
- How about Jacob Marsack – 8.25 average for 18th!
When we compare rider’s mud race average vs their overall career average we can see who improves the most in mud races:
Highest Average Finish Improvement in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)
| Rank | Rider | Starts | Career Average Finish | Average Mud Finish | Plus/Minus |
| 1 | Jacob Marsack | 4 | 14.81 | 8.25 | +6.56 |
| 2 | Tyler Evans | 3 | 14.85 | 8.67 | +6.18 |
| 3 | Shane McElrath | 3 | 13.24 | 8.67 | +4.57 |
| 4 | Eric Sorby | 3 | 15.36 | 11.67 | +3.69 |
| 5 | James Stewart | 8 | 5.50 | 1.88 | +3.62 |
| 6 | Dylan Ferrandis | 3 | 8.68 | 5.67 | +3.01 |
| 7 | Aaron Plessinger | 6 | 8.59 | 5.83 | +2.76 |
| 8 | Travis Preston | 4 | 10.21 | 8.00 | +2.21 |
| 9 | Mike Alessi | 6 | 12.52 | 10.33 | +2.19 |
| 10 | Davi Millsaps | 8 | 7.82 | 5.75 | +2.07 |
| 11 | Eli Tomac | 9 | 4.50 | 2.56 | +1.94 |
| 12 | Justin Bogle | 3 | 14.15 | 12.33 | +1.82 |
| 13 | Chase Sexton | 4 | 5.21 | 3.75 | +1.46 |
| 14 | Fredrik Noren | 4 | 17.71 | 16.50 | +1.21 |
| – | Heath Voss | 7 | 11.78 | 10.57 | +1.21 |
- Jacob Marsack and Tyler Evans with over a 6 position average improvement!
- McElrath’s mud races have been strong and it shows with a 4.57 average improvement
- Ferrandis and Plessinger’s improvement’s seem about right
- Some riders who typically excel more at Outdoors show some of the highest improvement here: Ferrandis, Alessi, Bogle, Noren
So who gets worse in mud races?
Lowest Average Finish Improvement in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)
| Rank | Rider | Starts | Career Average Finish | Average Mud Finish | Plus/Minus |
| 56 | Ernesto Fonseca | 3 | 8.19 | 14.33 | -6.14 |
| 55 | Josh Hill | 7 | 10.82 | 16.71 | -5.89 |
| 54 | Christian Craig | 3 | 10.08 | 15.00 | -4.92 |
| 53 | David Vuillemin | 6 | 6.47 | 11.17 | -4.70 |
| 52 | Cole Seely | 4 | 7.88 | 12.50 | -4.62 |
| 51 | Nathan Ramsey | 3 | 9.07 | 13.00 | -3.93 |
| 50 | Paul Carpenter | 4 | 12.09 | 15.75 | -3.66 |
| 49 | Kyle Lewis | 4 | 14.17 | 17.75 | -3.58 |
| 48 | Weston Peick | 4 | 12.02 | 15.50 | -3.48 |
| 47 | Malcolm Stewart | 6 | 10.11 | 13.50 | -3.39 |
| 46 | Ken Roczen | 8 | 5.23 | 7.75 | -2.52 |
| 45 | Justin Brayton | 7 | 9.15 | 11.14 | -1.99 |
| 44 | Tim Ferry | 5 | 8.44 | 10.40 | -1.96 |
| 43 | Justin Hill | 3 | 11.21 | 13.00 | -1.79 |
| 42 | Marvin Musquin | 6 | 5.81 | 7.50 | -1.69 |
- Fonseca comes in last here with his average in mud races dropping by over 6
- Christian Craig and Malcolm Stewart’s two recent finishes are hurting them a lot here in the averages
- Seeing Roczen here is surprising, especially given that he has podiumed in 4 of his 8 mud races
Highest Win Percentages in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)
| Rank | Rider | Starts | Wins | Win % |
| 1 | James Stewart | 8 | 5 | 62.50% |
| 2 | Eli Tomac | 9 | 4 | 44.44% |
| 3 | Kevin Windham | 10 | 3 | 30.00% |
| 4 | Chase Sexton | 4 | 1 | 25.00% |
| 5 | Ryan Dungey | 4 | 1 | 25.00% |
| 6 | Justin Barcia | 8 | 2 | 25.00% |
| 7 | Chad Reed | 14 | 3 | 21.43% |
| 8 | Aaron Plessinger | 6 | 1 | 16.67% |
- Surprising to not see Ricky Carmichael on here but remember this goes back to just 2003
- Ricky has 4 mud race starts since 2003 and podiumed in all 4 but never won any of them
- Once again, I never realized how strong James Stewart was in the mud races he competed in
Highest Laps Led Percentage in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)
| Rank | Rider | Laps Completed | Laps Led | Laps Led % |
| 1 | James Stewart | 134 | 80 | 59.70% |
| 2 | Ryan Dungey | 60 | 16 | 26.67% |
| 3 | Chase Sexton | 63 | 16 | 25.40% |
| 4 | Chad Reed | 223 | 53 | 23.77% |
| 5 | Eli Tomac | 146 | 32 | 21.92% |
| 6 | Aaron Plessinger | 100 | 21 | 21.00% |
| 7 | Kevin Windham | 146 | 29 | 19.86% |
| 8 | Justin Barcia | 122 | 18 | 14.75% |
| 9 | Dean Wilson | 113 | 14 | 12.39% |
| 10 | Ken Roczen | 123 | 13 | 10.57% |
| 11 | Cooper Webb | 129 | 11 | 8.53% |
| 12 | Ricky Carmichael | 59 | 5 | 8.47% |
| 13 | Jason Anderson | 132 | 5 | 3.79% |
| 14 | Davi Millsaps | 120 | 4 | 3.33% |
- We also see Stewart way ahead in terms of laps led %
- Dean Wilson makes this list from his laps led at Anaheim 1 2019
I think mud races are a good mix up race to have once in a while but after two consecutive ones early in the season, I hope we get just the normal dry races the rest of the season. The fact we have only had 20 from 2003 through the first three rounds of 2024 shows how rare they are. Since 2003, there have been 355 Supercross races, which means mud race or “mixed conditions” races are only 5.63% of the time.
However, if you adjust for open-air venues, there has been 209 races with rain potential. This gives a 9.57% rate of a mud race in open-air venues – still pretty rare.
Thanks for reading! Any questions – hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference
