Super Stats: Who are the best mud racers in recent Supercross history?

After two consecutive mud races in San Francisco and San Diego, we get to the question of who is the best mud rider?

When we think of mud races, we typically think of A1 2005 or Daytona 2008 as the perfect examples of “mudders.” However, I looked at a lot of different races since 2003 that might not be as extreme as A1 2005 or Daytona 2008. Some of these could maybe be better considered “mixed conditions.”

Here is the list of races I am including since 2003 (going back to 2003 for the laps data):

2005 Anaheim 1	2012 Daytona
2005 Seattle	2016 Las Vegas
2006 San Francisco	2018 Seattle
2006 Seattle	2019 Anaheim 1
2008 Anaheim 1	2019 San Diego
2008 San Francisco	2020 Salt Lake City 3
2008 Daytona	2021 Atlanta 1
2009 Anaheim 3	2023 East Rutherford
2010 Salt Lake City	2024 San Francisco
2011 San Diego	2024 San Diego

All data is up to date through the first three rounds of 2024.

Best Average Finish in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Average Mud Race Finish
1	James Stewart	8	1.88
2	Eli Tomac	9	2.56
3	Ricky Carmichael	4	2.75
4	Chase Sexton	4	3.75
5	Ryan Dungey	4	4.25
6	Kevin Windham	10	5.00
7	Cooper Webb	8	5.13
8	Chad Reed	14	5.57
9	Dylan Ferrandis	3	5.67
10	Davi Millsaps	8	5.75
11	Aaron Plessinger	6	5.83
12	Mike LaRocco	3	6.00
13	Jason Anderson	8	6.75
14	Andrew Short	6	7.33
15	Marvin Musquin	6	7.50
16	Ken Roczen	8	7.75
17	Travis Preston	4	8.00
18	Jacob Marsack	4	8.25
19	Tyler Evans	3	8.67
–	Shane McElrath	3	8.67
21	Justin Barcia	8	9.00
–	Michael Byrne	5	9.00
23	Blake Baggett	5	9.20
24	Dean Wilson	7	9.57
25	Broc Tickle	5	9.80

• I would not have thought Stew would have had the top average finish, however, he was very successful in his mud races with an average under 2.00
• Tomac second and Carmichael third isn’t too surprising
• For the most part, the top riders are still the top riders when it’s a mud race
• How about Jacob Marsack – 8.25 average for 18^th!

When we compare rider’s mud race average vs their overall career average we can see who improves the most in mud races:

Highest Average Finish Improvement in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Career Average Finish	Average Mud Finish	Plus/Minus
1	Jacob Marsack	4	14.81	8.25	+6.56
2	Tyler Evans	3	14.85	8.67	+6.18
3	Shane McElrath	3	13.24	8.67	+4.57
4	Eric Sorby	3	15.36	11.67	+3.69
5	James Stewart	8	5.50	1.88	+3.62
6	Dylan Ferrandis	3	8.68	5.67	+3.01
7	Aaron Plessinger	6	8.59	5.83	+2.76
8	Travis Preston	4	10.21	8.00	+2.21
9	Mike Alessi	6	12.52	10.33	+2.19
10	Davi Millsaps	8	7.82	5.75	+2.07
11	Eli Tomac	9	4.50	2.56	+1.94
12	Justin Bogle	3	14.15	12.33	+1.82
13	Chase Sexton	4	5.21	3.75	+1.46
14	Fredrik Noren	4	17.71	16.50	+1.21
–	Heath Voss	7	11.78	10.57	+1.21

• Jacob Marsack and Tyler Evans with over a 6 position average improvement!
• McElrath’s mud races have been strong and it shows with a 4.57 average improvement
• Ferrandis and Plessinger’s improvement’s seem about right
• Some riders who typically excel more at Outdoors show some of the highest improvement here: Ferrandis, Alessi, Bogle, Noren

So who gets worse in mud races?

Lowest Average Finish Improvement in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Career Average Finish	Average Mud Finish	Plus/Minus
56	Ernesto Fonseca	3	8.19	14.33	-6.14
55	Josh Hill	7	10.82	16.71	-5.89
54	Christian Craig	3	10.08	15.00	-4.92
53	David Vuillemin	6	6.47	11.17	-4.70
52	Cole Seely	4	7.88	12.50	-4.62
51	Nathan Ramsey	3	9.07	13.00	-3.93
50	Paul Carpenter	4	12.09	15.75	-3.66
49	Kyle Lewis	4	14.17	17.75	-3.58
48	Weston Peick	4	12.02	15.50	-3.48
47	Malcolm Stewart	6	10.11	13.50	-3.39
46	Ken Roczen	8	5.23	7.75	-2.52
45	Justin Brayton	7	9.15	11.14	-1.99
44	Tim Ferry	5	8.44	10.40	-1.96
43	Justin Hill	3	11.21	13.00	-1.79
42	Marvin Musquin	6	5.81	7.50	-1.69

• Fonseca comes in last here with his average in mud races dropping by over 6
• Christian Craig and Malcolm Stewart’s two recent finishes are hurting them a lot here in the averages
• Seeing Roczen here is surprising, especially given that he has podiumed in 4 of his 8 mud races

Highest Win Percentages in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Wins	Win %
1	James Stewart	8	5	62.50%
2	Eli Tomac	9	4	44.44%
3	Kevin Windham	10	3	30.00%
4	Chase Sexton	4	1	25.00%
5	Ryan Dungey	4	1	25.00%
6	Justin Barcia	8	2	25.00%
7	Chad Reed	14	3	21.43%
8	Aaron Plessinger	6	1	16.67%

• Surprising to not see Ricky Carmichael on here but remember this goes back to just 2003
• Ricky has 4 mud race starts since 2003 and podiumed in all 4 but never won any of them
• Once again, I never realized how strong James Stewart was in the mud races he competed in

Highest Laps Led Percentage in Mud Races (Minimum 3 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Laps Completed	Laps Led	Laps Led %
1	James Stewart	134	80	59.70%
2	Ryan Dungey	60	16	26.67%
3	Chase Sexton	63	16	25.40%
4	Chad Reed	223	53	23.77%
5	Eli Tomac	146	32	21.92%
6	Aaron Plessinger	100	21	21.00%
7	Kevin Windham	146	29	19.86%
8	Justin Barcia	122	18	14.75%
9	Dean Wilson	113	14	12.39%
10	Ken Roczen	123	13	10.57%
11	Cooper Webb	129	11	8.53%
12	Ricky Carmichael	59	5	8.47%
13	Jason Anderson	132	5	3.79%
14	Davi Millsaps	120	4	3.33%

• We also see Stewart way ahead in terms of laps led %
• Dean Wilson makes this list from his laps led at Anaheim 1 2019

I think mud races are a good mix up race to have once in a while but after two consecutive ones early in the season, I hope we get just the normal dry races the rest of the season. The fact we have only had 20 from 2003 through the first three rounds of 2024 shows how rare they are. Since 2003, there have been 355 Supercross races, which means mud race or “mixed conditions” races are only 5.63% of the time.

However, if you adjust for open-air venues, there has been 209 races with rain potential. This gives a 9.57% rate of a mud race in open-air venues – still pretty rare.

Thanks for reading! Any questions – hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference