We are going into year 3 of the SMX playoffs this starting Saturday, September 6th. So far we have had varying amounts of riders qualifying through LCQs (now called Wild Cards this year). This article will break down how many different riders have been in the Top 20, in the LCQ races and where they have qualified from.
Top 20 Seeds Breakdown
450 Class
In the three years of data, 2023-2025, there has been 32 different riders to have been Top 20 in 450SMX points.
From 2023-2024, 13 of the 20 riders carried over – 65.00%. From 2024-2025, once again, 13 of the 20 riders carried over – 65.00%.
10 riders have been Top 20 in 450 SMX points each year from 2023-2025: Chase Sexton, Aaron Plessinger, Jett Lawrence, Dylan Ferrandis, Cooper Webb, Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, Justin Barcia and Shane McElrath. (This list includes riders who have been hurt and not competed in playoff rounds.)
20th Place SMX Points for seeding each year:
2023 – 155 Points (Josh Hill)
2024 – 140 (Kyle Chisholm)
2025 – 194 (Mitchell Harrison)
A much higher cutoff this year in 2025.
250 Class
In the three years of data, 2023-2025, there has been 33 different riders to have been Top 20 in 250SMX points.
From 2023-2024, 11 of the 20 riders carried over – 55.00%. From 2024-2025, once again, 11 of the 20 riders carried over – 65.00%. However, this includes riders that graduated up to the 450 class.
When adjusting for class graduates (or just changing classes), from 2023-2024, 11 of the 17 riders carried over – 64.71%. From 2024-2025, another consistent stat, 11 of the 17 riders carried over – 64.71%.
8 riders have been Top 20 in 250 SMX points each year from 2023-2025: Haiden Deegan, Levi Kitchen, RJ Hampshire, Jo Shimoda, Tom Vialle, Jordon Smith, Ryder DiFrancesco and Chance Hymas. (This list includes riders who have been hurt and not competed in playoff rounds.)
20th Place SMX Points for seeding each year:
2023 – 152 Points (Chance Hymas)
2024 – 169 (Nate Thrasher)
2025 – 173 (RJ Hampshire)
Main Event Qualifying from LCQs
450 Class
There has been 6 LCQ races so far from SMX with various amounts of riders competing.
2023:
| Round | Spots Available | LCQ Riders | Percent that Qualify | Notes |
| Round 1 | 3 | 10 | 30.00% | |
| Round 2 | 3 | 10 | 30.00% | |
| Round 3 | 3 | 10 | 30.00% | 5 Spots available in second moto due to two DNS from Top 20 |
11 total different riders competed for a spot in the mains in 2023 in the 450 class. 5 different riders made the main (one of which was a late entry due to a rider have a DNS in one moto).
The riders that qualified for the races were seeded: 23, 25, 33, 35 and 39. So a pretty wide range of 16.
The two riders who qualified into all three races in 2023 were Phil Nicoletti (seed 23) and Jerry Robin (seed 33).
Phil Nicoletti was the highest non Top 20 seed that was healthy and competing in 2023. (21 was Jose Butron and 22 was Christian Craig – both not competing).
2024:
| Round | Spots Available | LCQ Riders | Percent that Qualify | Notes |
| Round 1 | 4 | 9 | 44.44% | |
| Round 2 | 2 | 9 | 22.22% | 3 Spots available in second moto due to one DNS from Top 20 |
| Round 3 | 3 | 7 | 42.86% | 4 Spots available in second moto due to one DNS from Top 20 |
10 total different riders competed for a spot in the mains in 2024 in the 450 class. Once again, 5 different riders made the mains (and again, one of which was a late entry due to a rider have a DNS in one moto).
The riders that qualified for the races were seeded: 21, 22, 27, 28 and 37. Another range of 16.
The three riders who qualified into all three races in 2024 were Dean Wilson (seed 21), Colt Nichols (seed 28) and Jerry Robin (seed 37). Is Jerry the 450 SMX LCQ whisperer??? Both Colt Nichols and Jerry Robin got into one of the races due to a rider DNS in moto 2.
Like 2023 with Phil Nicoletti, the highest and healthy non Top 20 seed qualified into all three of the races was Dean Wilson.
The top seeded healthy rider for 2025 that fits this is Coty Schock. I could easily see Schock qualifying into all three races.
250 Class
2023:
| Round | Spots Available | LCQ Riders | Percent that Qualify | Notes |
| Round 1 | 4 | 9 | 44.44% | |
| Round 2 | 6 | 8 | 75.00% | |
| Round 3 | 7 | 10 | 70.00% |
11 total different riders competed for a spot in the mains in 2023 in the 250 class. 10 different riders made mains across three rounds.
The riders that qualified for the races were seeded: 23, 24, 25, 27, 31, 32, 38, 39, 44 and 48. Had to go pretty far down the seeding for some of these riders! A range of 25!
Interestingly, the two riders who qualified into all three races were actually the lowest seeds of the group: Hunter Yoder (seed 44) and Luke Neese (seed 48).
2024:
| Round | Spots Available | LCQ Riders | Percent that Qualify | Notes |
| Round 1 | 5 | 9 | 55.56% | 6 Spots available in second moto due to one DNS from Top 20 |
| Round 2 | 7 | 9 | 77.78% | 8 Spots available in second moto due to one DNS from Top 20 |
| Round 3 | 9 | 9 | 100.00% |
12 total different riders competed for a spot in the mains in 2024 in the 250 class. 11 different riders made mains across three rounds.
The riders that qualified for the races were seeded: 22, 23, 26, 28, 29, 30, 33, 36, 44, 45 and 49. Just like 2023, the series had to go pretty far down to get some of these riders! And an even bigger range of 27!
Four riders qualified into all three rounds: Talon Hawkins (seed 22), Cameron McAdoo (seed 23), Jett Reynolds (seed 26) and Lux Turner (seed 36).
Like the 450 qualifiers in 2023 and 2024, Talon Hawkins was the highest and healthy non Top 20 seed and he made all three mains. McAdoo was next at 23.
For 2025, this rider would be Lux Turner the 21 seed.
It is interesting to see that a far higher percent of 250SMX riders qualify through the LCQ compared to the 450 class. By round average, 33.25% of riders in the 450 LCQs get in (ignoring moto 2 fill ins). Whereas, in the 250 Class, on average 70.46% of riders in the LCQ move onto the main.
This is due to the need of more riders to fill the gates in the 250 Class but why is this specifically? I’m not quite sure. To some extent there have been a few riders that have been in the Top 20 in 250 points that have then competed in the 450 class, but that is only a handful of riders.
From the riders who did qualify through the LCQ, there doesn’t really seem to be any trends or themes based on their seeding. I think this is just due such a small sample size. The only trend I found is the in 3 out of 4 cases, the highest (healthy) seeded rider outside of the Top 20 has made all three races across 2023 and 2024 in the two classes. This shouldn’t be too surprising, the rider just outside the Top 20 should probably be pretty strong and consistent to get there in the first place.
However, in the 6 LCQs in the 250 class, the highest seed in the LCQ has never won the LCQ race. In the 450 class in 2023, Phil Nicoletti won all the LCQs as the highest seed amongst those in the LCQ. But in 2024, the highest seed never won the LCQ race. Phil is truly the LCQ champion! Furthermore, only two riders have won more than one SMX LCQ, Phil Nicoletti and Jerry Robin.
The correlation of seeding to LCQ results is pretty inconsistent as well:
250 Class LCQ Correlation:
| 2023 Round 1 | 2023 Round 2 | 2023 Round 3 | 2024 Round 1 | 2024 Round 2 | 2024 Round 3 |
| 0.11 | -0.38 | -0.22 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
2023 was all over the place, 2024 was a bit more in line with what we would probably expect.
450 Class LCQ Correlation:
| 2023 Round 1 | 2023 Round 2 | 2023 Round 3 | 2024 Round 1 | 2024 Round 2 | 2024 Round 3 |
| 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
2023 for 450s was more similar to 2024 for the 250 class, but 2024 had essentially zero correlation.
Long story short, expect the unexpected for the LCQs this year in SMX!
Thanks for reading! Any questions, hit me up on Instagram or Twitter: @MXReference
