If we were to compare where the fastest qualifier in the 250 Supercross class would place in the 450 Supercross class, where would that be?
For the Supercross series, we have the qualifying data back to 2007 to compare the classes with each other. This gives us 307 races with data to compare.
The data in the article is updated through the first three rounds of the 2025 Supercross season. In years where the East / West qualifying was split at shootouts, I took the fastest 250SX rider regardless of coast for the comparison.
I’ll include the times in both a table and a chart for better readability.
Average Qualifying Position
In the 307 races with data, the average position that the fastest 250SX qualifier would place in the 450 class is 5.66.
Here is how it breaks down by year:
| Year | Avg Qualifying Position |
| 2007 | 5.94 |
| 2008 | 3.50 |
| 2009 | 5.82 |
| 2010 | 4.88 |
| 2011 | 8.12 |
| 2012 | 4.41 |
| 2013 | 5.12 |
| 2014 | 4.18 |
| 2015 | 6.18 |
| 2016 | 7.88 |
| 2017 | 7.18 |
| 2018 | 4.94 |
| 2019 | 4.41 |
| 2020 | 4.35 |
| 2021 | 8.00 |
| 2022 | 5.24 |
| 2023 | 4.06 |
| 2024 | 7.41 |
| 2025 (3 races) | 7.00 |
In chart form (not including 2025 in the chart due to low sample size):
In chart form we can see a small upwards trend but its volatile overall. It is an interesting combo when thinking about how strong the top 450 riders in a given year and then how strong the fastest 25o qualifier was in each season. For example, the reason for a big difference between 2023 and 2024 was that the Lawrence brothers were in the 250 class in 2023 and then the 450 class in 2024. The Lawrence’s had 14 of the 17 fastest qualifying positions in 2023 for the 250SX class.
Interestingly, as 450 qualifying times have trended closer and closer over the past 15 years, the 250 class qualifying times have trended flatly. Meaning the gaps in 250SX qualifying have stayed basically the same on average over the last 15 years. Despite this, we still see this volatility from the chart.
Average Time Gap from 450SX Pole to 250SX Pole
We saw where the fasted 250SX qualifier would place on average compared to the 450 Class, but what about the average time distance in qualifying times?
Here is the average time distance between the fastest 450SX qualifier and the fastest 250SX qualifier on average is 0.667. Here is the annual breakdown.
| Year | Average Qualifying Gap (Seconds) |
| 2007 | 1.941 |
| 2008 | 0.701 |
| 2009 | 1.641 |
| 2010 | 0.788 |
| 2011 | 1.459 |
| 2012 | 0.983 |
| 2013 | 0.761 |
| 2014 | 0.562 |
| 2015 | 0.920 |
| 2016 | 0.922 |
| 2017 | 1.014 |
| 2018 | 0.716 |
| 2019 | 0.522 |
| 2020 | 0.535 |
| 2021 | 0.987 |
| 2022 | 0.774 |
| 2023 | 0.642 |
| 2024 | 0.974 |
| 2025 (3 Races) | 1.191 |
In chart form (not including 2025 in the chart due to low sample size):
We can see a steady downward trend, however that is mostly due to the early 2007, 2009 and 2011 years in the chart.
Speaking of those years, why is there a larger gap in times? A very simple answer: James Stewart. (He was injured in 2008 and 2010.)
So overall we can see that gap over time is trending downward. But if we ignore 2007, 2009 and 2011, its basically been flat for ~15 years with some changes here and there.
Important note: I know its better to use the percentage difference here instead of time to give the relative difference. However, the percentage data creates a nearly identical chart to this one and the takeaways would be the same. I think its also easier to visualize mentally this way. Take 2007 for example, I think its easier to picture a near 2 seconds difference on a typical Supercross track rather then me saying a 3.87% difference.
Speaking of years where the qualifying was closer we can see 2019 and 2020 standing out. This is attributable to a combo of Adam Cianciarulo, Dylan Ferrandis, Austin Forkner and Chase Sexton being strong in qualifying in the 250 Class. By 2021, Cianciarulo, Ferrandis and Sexton were in the 450 class. (AC moved up in 2020.)
You might be thinking, “Wait, but wasn’t Adam Cianciarulo the fastest qualifier for the seven rounds of 2020 in the 450 Class?” Yes, and in the 250 Class, Dylan Ferrandis was the fastest qualifier in the first six rounds in 2020 and then the series went east.
Another factor for 2020, was the last seven rounds were the covid Salt Lake City rounds. Those tracks were pretty generic to be easy to transform in the matter of a few days between races. The qualifying was pretty close in these rounds.
The 2023 to 2024 gap can be attributable to the Lawrence’s as mentioned earlier.
Most Common Position for 250SX Fastest Qualifier
On average, we established that the fastest 250SX qualifier would qualify on average at 5.66 in the 450 Class. But how does that breakdown in comparing how often they are first, second, third, etc?
| Position | Count | % of races |
| 1 | 33 | 10.75% |
| 2 | 32 | 10.42% |
| 3 | 30 | 9.77% |
| 4 | 35 | 11.40% |
| 5 | 33 | 10.75% |
| 6 | 29 | 9.45% |
| 7 | 23 | 7.49% |
| 8 | 25 | 8.14% |
| 9 | 19 | 6.19% |
| 10 | 20 | 6.51% |
| 11 | 13 | 4.23% |
| 12 | 7 | 2.28% |
| 13 | 4 | 1.30% |
| 14 | 2 | 0.65% |
| 15 | 1 | 0.33% |
| 16 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 17 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 18 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 19 | 1 | 0.33% |
| 20 | 0 | 0.00% |
What sticks out to me here is that in the 307 races of data we have, 10.75% of the time, the fastest 250SX qualifier beats all the 450 times. This is higher than I expected. As often, this happens due to weather impacting the qualifying conditions. I wouldn’t have thought this would happen this often, especially that first is tied as the second highest instance. I would have guessed the vast majority would have fallen in the 4-8 range.
19th place is the lowest since 2007. This occurred at Orlando 1 in 2021 with Christian Craig on pole for the 250 class. Interestingly, Craig was 1.711 seconds behind the 450 pole position. This is not the largest time gap between classes. That would be at 2012 Daytona.
The gap between 450 Pole and 250 Pole at Daytona 2012 was 4.079 seconds. With James Stewart in the 450 class and Justin Barcia in the 250 class. If Barcia’s time was in the 450 class, it would place him 5th overall. Stewart was simply on a heater and was 2.477 seconds faster than the next closest 450 rider.
Thanks for reading! Any questions – hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference
