Super Stats: The Most Consistent and Inconsistent Riders in Motocross History

Hunter Lawrence is the current 450MX points leader and his worst overall finish in the 450MX class is a 5th overall. He finished 5th overall at Hangtown and Thunder Valley in 2025. In the 16 starts since then, he has one 4th and then has been on the podium the rest of the time.

This is extremely consistent so I wanted to see how that compares historically to riders like Ryan Dungey or even his brother Jett.

So, I went through the standard deviations of every rider’s overall finishes in the 450MX and 250MX class. I’ll show the most consistent and least consistent based on that number. I’ll also show the largest outlier results for riders (the one for the 450 class is nearly a statistical improbability!).

450MX – Most Consistent Riders (min. 10 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Best FIN	Median FIN	Worst FIN	Avg. FIN	STD DEV
1	Hunter Lawrence	30	1	2	5	2.37	1.13
2	RJ Hampshire	19	2	6	9	5.84	1.95
3	Jett Lawrence	35	1	1	12	1.71	2.05
4	Jean-Michel Bayle	13	1	2	10	2.85	2.30
5	Ryan Dungey	87	1	2	12	2.61	2.35
6	Derek Wedding	12	13	17	21	17.17	2.41
7	Justin Cooper	24	3	5	13	5.21	2.48
8	Ron Lechien	33	1	3	11	3.94	2.52
9	Matthew Burkeen	13	31	35	40	35.62	2.53
10	Tim Hart	15	1	5	10	5.27	2.60
11	Rick Johnson	56	1	2	12	2.89	2.65
12	Adam Enticknap	16	25	28	34	28.50	2.71
13	Dakota Alix	12	10	14	19	14.58	2.71
14	Dan Wallace	11	15	19	23	19.45	2.81
15	Matt Karlsen	20	20	26.5	33	26.25	2.84

Okay Hunter is first! He has been extremely consistent in his 450MX career so far!
I would have never guessed RJ Hampshire would be in the top of one of these lists but he has actually been extremely consistent in 450MX. A standard deviation under 2! In 250MX, he has a score of 6.82.
Jett’s Lawrence’s 12th overall at Hangtown 2024 is his only non Top 10 finish. His only other finish off the podium was Ironman 2025 where he was penalized a whole lap and went 17-1 for 6th overall.
The great JMB is ahead of Dungey! Smaller sample size but still impressive.
Ryan Dungey’s 12th place finish was only due to a mechanical in his comeback season in 2022. Other than that, all his 450MX overalls are in the Top 10.
It is interesting to see the riders who were not factory riders or even Top 10 guys. Derek Wedding, Matt Burkeen, Adam Enticknap, Dakota Alix, Dan Wallace and Matt Karlsen all were very consistent, just outside the Top 10.

450MX – Least Consistent Riders (min. 10 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Best FIN	Median FIN	Worst FIN	Avg. FIN	STD DEV
1	Grant Langston	18	1	6.5	40	11.61	12.36
2	Stephane Roncada	28	2	9.5	40	14.89	12.35
3	Kyle Regal	33	3	13	40	17.42	12.33
4	James Stewart	67	1	3	42	9.12	12.30
	Michael Craig	22	3	10	38	15.09	12.30
6	Jake Moss	11	4	15	40	19.73	12.20
7	Justin Hill	14	5	12	44	16.14	12.15
8	Sean Hamblin	58	3	13.5	40	17.52	11.94
9	Tommy Hahn	49	1	11	40	15.33	11.80
10	Colt Nichols	15	9	17	42	21.73	11.59
11	Ricky Dietrich	23	5	18	39	18.57	11.49
12	Weston Peick	95	4	11	40	15.44	11.39
13	Derek Drake	16	7	22	41	23.44	11.33
14	Steve Lamson	36	2	12	40	16.08	11.27
15	Dylan Merriam	21	9	24	42	25.05	11.21

Pretty surprising that a 450MX champion leads the way here with Grant Langston.
I am not surprised at all to see James Stewart high up on this list. He had many DNFs in his outdoor career and plenty of wins too.
- Stew had more finishes outside the Top 10 than Wins. 21 to 20.
I completely forgot that Kyle Regal once finished on the podium.
Colt Nichols is not too surprising to see on here.

450MX – Biggest Statistical Outlier Finishes

Rank	Rider	Starts	Worst FIN	AVG FIN	STD DEV	Standard Deviations Away from Avg
1	Ricky Carmichael	88	38	1.72	4.10	8.86
2	Mike LaRocco	135	40	5.08	4.23	8.25
3	Eli Tomac	108	41	3.68	4.76	7.84
4	Kevin Windham	118	40	5.09	5.26	6.63
5	Chase Sexton	57	41	4.12	5.62	6.56

Ricky Carmichael’s 38th overall at Glen Helen in 2006 is 8.86 standard deviations away from his average. To put that in perspective, that would be the same level of statistical outlier as Peyton Manning throwing 14 touchdowns in a single game. Pretty wild!
Mike LaRocco’s 40th overall at Glen Helen 2002 is his biggest outlier.
Eli Tomac got 41st overall at Fox Raceway this year after crashing in the first moto of the year and getting injured.
Kevin Windham got 40th overall at Washougal in 1998.
Sexton’s 41st overall was from Fox Raceway in 2025.

Interesting that 4/5 examples here are from Southern California tracks.

Onto the 250 Class.

250MX – Most Consistent Riders (min. 10 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Best FIN	Median FIN	Worst FIN	Avg. FIN	STD DEV
1	Ken Roczen	25	1	3	9	3.40	2.06
2	James Stewart	31	1	1	12	1.71	2.36
3	Ben Townley	16	1	2	10	2.81	2.54
4	Lorenzo Locurcio	12	11	16.5	21	16.33	2.57
5	Ricky Carmichael	39	1	1	13	2.31	2.64
6	Erick Meusling	14	31	35	40	35.86	2.66
	Kody Kamm	12	20	26.5	29	26.17	2.66
8	Kris Bigelow	10	9	12	17	12.40	2.72
9	Ron Lechien	20	1	1.5	10	2.75	2.75
10	Jim Gibson	22	2	4	12	5.09	2.84
11	Vincent Luhovey	15	24	28	35	28.07	2.87
12	Aaron Zielfelder	10	26	29	34	29.50	2.88
13	Broc Glover	38	1	2	14	3.08	2.96
14	George Holland	71	1	4	14	4.37	3.10
15	Danny Storbeck	10	5	11	17	11.10	3.14

Ken Roczen leads the way! Interestingly his results would be even lower if he didn’t come back for one round in 2024 to race the 250MX class where he got 9th overall.
James Stewart…from one of the most inconsistent in the 450 class to the second most consistent in the 250 class.
Ben Townley only raced one full season in the 250MX class where he battled with Ryan Villopoto for the title. His average overall finish that year in 2007 was 1.67. Finishing on the podium every round.
Lucurcio! Consistently in the 10 to 20 range.
Ricky Carmichael has just one 250MX overall outside the Top 10. 13th at High Point 1997.

250MX – Least Consistent Riders (min. 10 Starts)

Rank	Rider	Starts	Best FIN	Median FIN	Worst FIN	Avg. FIN	STD DEV
1	Eric Sorby	24	2	13.5	39	17.67	13.82
2	Christian Craig	18	4	11.5	42	16.72	13.45
3	Jason Upshaw	11	8	16	40	20.27	13.12
4	Rodrig Thain	36	3	15.5	40	17.47	11.89
5	Jake Canada	18	8	16.5	40	20.39	11.65
	Tommy Hahn	40	5	12	40	17.20	11.65
7	Patrick Barton	12	5	20.5	40	22.42	11.59
8	Max Anstie	23	4	13	42	17.09	11.58
9	Zach Osborne	69	1	7	41	11.35	11.48
10	Branden Jesseman	66	2	14	40	15.77	11.46
11	Steve Lamson	110	1	5	40	10.04	11.43
12	Garrett Marchbanks	39	3	9	43	13.41	11.40
13	Cameron McAdoo	36	4	12.5	43	16.14	11.16
14	Shae Bentley	17	9	22	40	23.35	11.15
15	Christopher Gosselaar	88	2	20	42	21.14	11.09

Eric Sorby had 4 career 250MX podiums but also had 5 finishes at 39th overall.
Would not have thought Christian Craig would be on this list. Also forgot how few 250MX races he had. Craig had a lot of DNFs.
Zach Osborne shows up here as a champion of the class. His results are very much impacted by his first stint in the US from 2006-2008. In those years, he averaged 28th Overall and just finished Top 20 twice.
Seeing Garrett Marchbanks and Cameron McAdoo on here makes sense. I figured they would both be even higher on the list. Cameron McAdoo’s longest consecutive Top 10 streak? Just 4 races.

250MX – Biggest Statistical Outlier Finishes

Rank	Rider	Starts	Worst FIN	AVG FIN	STD DEV	Standard Deviations Away from Avg
1	Marvin Musquin	56	40	5.18	5.49	6.34
2	Dylan Ferrandis	41	41	4.76	6.68	5.42
3	Hunter Lawrence	52	44	6.58	6.92	5.41
4	Max Vohland	50	41	10.58	5.68	5.35
5	Blake Baggett	55	40	5.55	6.53	5.28

The highest score here is still less than the fifth highest 450MX score.

Marvin Musquin had a double DNF at 2011 Freestone when he got hit by Justin Barcia’s bike while Barcia crashed. Musquin broke his thumb at got 40th Overall that day. Musquin finished in the Top 10 54/56 times in his 250MX career.
Dylan Ferrandis got 41st overall in his first 250MX race in the States at Hangtown 2017. He went 36-41 on the day.
Hunter Lawrence’s 44th overall came at Loretta Lynn’s 2 in 2020. 2020 was a rough season for Hunter outdoors. His 2020 average finish was 16.63 vs 4.46 the rest of his 250MX seasons.
Max Vohland’s 41st came at High Point this year.
Blake Baggett’s 40th overall came at Budds Creek 2010. It was Baggett’s only finish outside the Top 20 in his 250MX career.

Thanks for reading! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference