Moto by Numbers Vol.6 – Stacked Season Openers

These numbers are calculated for what the riders stats were at the time of the given season opener, not what their stats are now. Enjoy.

By: Paul Quesnel

When it comes to supercross, it really doesn’t get much better than opening night in Anaheim. Due to the immeasurable amount of buildup, enthusiasm, and anticipation, the first supercross race of the season has become not only the most exciting event of the series, but also one of the most electrifying nights in all of motorsports. If your a hardcore fan, this one particular day of the year is like your birthday, Christmas morning, and the fourth of July all rolled into one compelling manifestation.

Aside from being the first event of the year, opening night also serves the purpose of being like a snapshot for the entire season. When people begin to measure how stacked one season is compared to another, they often use the gate from the opening race because that group of riders best embodies the series for that specific year. It’s almost comparable to some of the stick-and-ball sports where teams often have an original roster that is subject to change throughout the season due to injuries and all the other things that take athletes out of the game.

So could the season opener we just witnessed be considered the most competitive opener in the history of our sport? For the past couple years, this reoccurring question has been a hot-button for both debate and discussion throughout the motocross community. With every new contender that joins the premier class, more and more people want to figure out if this is the most stacked group of riders we have ever seen on the same gate at the lead-off race. So without further delay, below is a chart that contains the number of race winners and the number of series champions that were behind the gate on opening night for every year since the beginning of the series. By the way, these numbers are calculated for what the riders stats were at the time of the given season opener, not what their stats are now. Enjoy.

Note: The years with the red background signify the ten least competitive seasons and the years with the green background portrays the ten most competitive seasons.

Here are a few interesting notes I came across when analyzing the numbers:

• 2004 is the only year since the very beginning of the series that did not have a series champion in the main event of the opening race.
• The most race winners on the gate for a series opener stands at 10 and has only happened twice since 1974. If Josh Hill had made the main event at Anaheim last weekend, we would have again tied that statistic.
• The most series champions on the gate for an opening race stands at 4 and coincidently has only happened four times since the beginning of the series. Furthermore, two of those instances are from the last two years.
• From ’80-’89 there was on average 5.2 race winners per season opener. For ’90-’99 the average was 6.8; for ’00-’09 it was 6.5; and so far from ’10-’13 the average has been 7.5.
• By taking the number of race winners and adding that to the numbers of series champs, one could deduce that 2013 was the most competitive season opener we have ever seen (series champs + race winners=13).

The next two closest years would theoretically be 1998 and 1999 as they are both just one point behind with a total of 12 race winners and series champs.
One of the things that has been a subject for debate recently is how to determine what makes one season opener more competitive than another. The simplest method that is most commonly used is the one displayed in the chart above. The biggest drawback to this approach is that although we are talking about the premiere class, the riders career in the lites championship should also be taken into consideration somehow. We often see multi-time lites champions move up into the 450 class and never win a main event and because of this, there qualifications never really get represented. The other disadvantage that goes along with using the concept above is that when it comes to race wins and championships, it really doesn’t matter how many the rider has if he at least has one. Whether you are Jeremy McGrath with 72 wins and 7 titles or Pierre Karsmakers with only 1 win and 1 title, it really doesn’t make one bit of difference. So in an attempt to remedy this situation, here is a more in depth look at the last 10 years of supercross season openers. If there’s a large enough outcry its possible I could be motivated to do the 30 other years. Again these numbers are calculated for what the riders stats were at the time of the given season opener, not what his stats are now.

• Out of the twenty riders on the line at the opener in ’03, only four of them had won races in both the lites class and the premier class.
• The only rider that had a premier class title to his name that night was Carmichael. Apart from RC, the only other riders that can say they were the sole champion on the gate at a season opener are Ellis, Ward, Stanton, and McGrath.
• The only other time there was six race winners and one series champion was in 1996 with McGrath, Bradshaw, Laracco, Craig, Emig, and Ward.

• The only rider with more than 10 premier class wins on the night in ’04 was Lusk who had a total of 12 victories.
• Out of the six premier class race winners, only two (Windham and Huffman) had more lites wins than premier class wins.
• 2004 holds the record for having the least amount of lites title holders in the previous decade with 6.

• With 72 main event victories to his name, Jeremy McGrath by himself had more wins than both of the previous two season openers.
• In addition to having the most lites class wins in the past decade, the 2005 season opener is also tied with a couple other years for most combined lites titles.
• Despite the huge amount of main event wins, two of the eight premier class race winners from this year only have 1 win to their name apiece (Huffman and Tortelli).

• With a combined total of 155 main event wins, 2006 owns the title for most victories on the gate at a season opener in the last decade.
• In addition to having the most combined main event wins, the ’06 opener also has the most combined premier class titles in the last decade with 12.
• In addition to everything, ’06 is also the only opener in the last 10 years where there were more combined premier titles than combined lites titles.

• In ’07 almost every one of the lites race winners was also a lites title holder. The only rider that had won races without any titles to show for it was David Vuillemin.
• Out of the 101 combined main event wins, Carmichael was responsible for 46 percent of those victories coming into that night.
• Out of the 8 lites champions in 2007, only four of them had ever won a premier class main event before.

• 2008 is the only season in the last decade that has the same number of premier title holders as it does combined premier titles.
• ’08 is also one of only four seasons in the last decade where there were more lites wins than premier class wins.
• Out of the 70 combined main event wins, Stewart and Reed were responsible for just over 70 percent of those victories coming into the opener.

• 2009 is tied with the two previous years for having the the least amount of premier class race winners in the past decade with 5.
• Coming into ’09, Reed was accountable for 45 percent of the combined 79 premier class wins.
• The average main event victories per main event winner leading into this year was 15.8 for the premier class.

• 2010 is tied with three other seasons (2006, 2012, 2013) for having the most amount of lites main events winners with 12.
• In addition to the previous statistic, the 2010 season opener is also tied with 2013 for having the most combined lites titles in the past decade with 13.
• At this point in time, four of the seven premier class race winners had no more than two race wins apiece.

• Out of everyone in the main event that night, the only three riders that had more premier class wins than lites wins were Stewart, Reed, and Windham.
• 2011 was the first time in five years that there was more than two premier class title holders in the series opener.
• Out of the 10 lites main event winners, the only ones that had yet to win a race in the premier class were Canard, Short and Tedesco.

• 2012 marked the first time there were four premier class title holders on the line for the season opener since 1990.
• 2012 was the only time in the past decade where more than half of the premier class race winners were also premier class champions.
• With a combined total of 102 lites wins, 2012 is just one victory off from being tied for most lites wins in the past decade.

• With 9 different premier race winners, the 2013 opener had the biggest variety of main event victors since 1999.
• If Jeremy McGrath decided to come out of retirement to race the opener last weekend, we would have had a total of 14 premier class titles and 218 premier class wins.
• 2013 marked the first time in supercross history that there has been four series champions in back-to-back season openers.