Rookies that burst onto the professional scene with spectacular rides are few and and far between.
Rookies that burst onto the professional scene with spectacular rides are few and and far between.
We’ve all seen it before. A headstrong young rookie pulls his bike up to the starting line. His palms are sweaty, his stomach is turning and his heart rate is already pounding away at double the pace of everyone else’s. Yet somehow, the hot new prospect is able to compose himself, utilize his emotions, and channel his excitement into ripping the holeshot in his very first professional race. Now sometimes the rookie may only make it to the second corner before his brain blows up and he subsequently hits the deck. Every now and then, the new kid on the block will make it to around the 20 minute mark before his fore-arms begin to swell and he drops the anchor from 1st to 10th in about two laps. And on extremely rare occasions, the talented young prospect will stay focused and keep it pinned for a long enough period of time to find himself battling for the win when the checkered flag comes out.
Rookies that burst onto the professional scene with spectacular rides are few and and far between. But while their performances are often both impressive and surprising, an adrenaline fueled debut ride isn’t always the best indicator for what the future will hold. Just because one guy shows a flash of brilliance in his inaugural race and another guy struggles, doesn’t necessarily mean that the one rider will have more success than the other. One nerve filled ride on the ragged edge is one thing, but harnessing those emotions into a string of solid and consistent finishes is something completely different. After doing a bit of research, I have found that the first 20 races of a riders pro career (roughly 1 full season for a 250 rider) is an adequate amount of time for a young rider to show his potential. In this article we will look at a couple of the top riders from the last five generations and compare their patterns and finishes. Enjoy.
Note: In the line charts, dark color represents outdoor finishes while light color signifies supercross finishes.
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• It’s interesting to note that both Wilson and Barcia earned their first professional win in the 11th race of their career.
• Dean Wilson is one of very few rookies that was been able to stay inside the top ten during the first 20 races of his career.
• Despite his 6th overall in his first race as a pro, Justin Barcia actually led half of the first moto that day at Glen Helen and also led three-quarters of the second moto.
• If Wilson hadn’t missed those two races because of visa complications, it would have only taken him 203 days to complete his first 20 races instead of almost a full year.
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• With only 3 finishes outside the top ten compared to Dungey’s 9, Villopoto was much more consistent during his rookie season. As a result, RV’s averages are slightly better in both disciplines.
• Although Dungey was a bit inconsistent during his first few races as a pro, he is also one if the very few people to grab a win in his first five attempts.
• With nine podiums apiece, both Villopoto and Dungey had a podium percentage of 45% during their first 20 events.
• While Villopoto actually had more top 5 finishes, the longest he could consecutively stay there was only four races. On the other hand, Dungey had a nine race streak where he never finished outside the top 4.
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• Starting his pro AMA career in a one off event in 1999, it would take Chad Reed almost three and a half years to come back and complete his first 20 races.
• With a 7 race win streak from Stewart and a 6 race win streak from Reed, it was obvious early on that these two would be some of the greatest riders our sport had ever seen.
• During the first 20 races of his career, Stewart held an astonishing 65% win rate and a 75% podium rate. Reed’s win rate and podium rate were also very respectable considering 4 of his first 20 events took place in the premier class (rounds 2,3,4, and 12.)
• With a grand total average finish of 3.75 for his first 20 races, Stewart had arguably the most impressive rookie season our sport has ever seen. Add in the fact that he was only 16 at the time, and I really don’t think there’s any dispute.
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• It’s interesting to see how similar the result patterns are between Carmichael and Windham in there first 20 events. As you can see, the each hit rough patches between races 1-4, 7-9, and 12-14.
• Although he didn’t win his first race until his fourth event, RC technically won his third supercross main and also his very second outdoor national.
• For his 16th event, Windham participated in his very first premier class supercross race where he finished 7th. If you take that race out of the equation Windham’s average SX finish would be 2.2 instead of 2.6.
• Out of Carmichael’s 4 finishes outside the top ten, only one of them came from his 11 outdoor results. Moreover, 9 of those 11 results were all within the top four.
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• With his 70% percent podium rate, Bradshaw was ultra consistent during his first season as a pro. Another point to add is that he only finished outside the top 10 once in each discipline.
• Due to McGrath’s 2 finishes outside the top ten in supercross, and his 3 finishes outside the top ten in the nationals, his averages for his first 20 races were driven way up.
• Despite the fact that McGrath is actually about 8 months older than Bradshaw, Damon actually finished his first 20 events about a year and a half before MC.
• With his 17 supercross events and only 3 outdoor events, McGrath has the most lop-sided race count out of the whole group.
